Recurrence intervals for the closure of the Dutch Maeslant surge barrier
Recurrence intervals for the closure of the Dutch Maeslant surge barrier
复制标题
荷兰梅斯兰特浪涌屏障关闭的重复间隔
DOI：
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Sacha de Goederen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
H. V. D. Brink;Sacha de Goederen
抽象的。荷兰梅斯兰特拦河闸是位于莱茵河河口的一个可移动的涌浪拦河闸，当北海出现涌浪且鹿特丹河的水位超过平均海平面3米时，该拦河闸就会关闭。故障概率的一个重要方面是屏障可能在关闭期间受损，并且在修复所需的时间内，可能发生第二次严重风暴潮。据估计，关闭隔离墙的频率为10年一次，因此出现了一个月内必须关闭两次的频率问题。而不是解决这个问题的统计模型的应用（短）观测序列，我们解决了这个问题，结合浪涌模型WAQUA/DCSMv 5与欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）在1981-2015年期间，其组合累积在一个伪观测序列超过6000年的所有季节性预报的输出。我们发现，泊松过程模型导致错误的结果，因为它忽略了时间的相关性，目前每天，每周和每月的时间尺度。通过计算超过2.5 m阈值的双事件数并假设事件数与阈值呈指数关系，发现平均150年一个月内发生一次两次闭合，平均330年一周内发生一次。在这些复发间隔的两个以上的一个因素的大的不确定性是由所观察到的记录，这是用于偏差校正的Gumbel参数的结果的敏感性。海平面上升对单封和双封的重现时间有显著影响。平均海平面每上升18厘米（假设其他影响保持不变），单次闭合的重现时间加倍，而双次闭合的重现时间则加倍。这意味着在2050年海平面上升15-40厘米时，发生双重闭合的可能性要高出3-14倍（根据KNMI气候情景）。
Abstract. The Dutch Maeslant Barrier, a movable surge barrier in the mouth of the river Rhine, closes when there is a surge in the North Sea and the water level in the river at Rotterdam exceeds 3 m above mean sea level. An important aspect of the failure probability is that the barrier might get damaged during a closure and that, within the time needed for repair, a second critical storm surge may occur. With an estimated closure frequency of once in 10 years, the question of how often the barrier has to be closed twice within one month arises. Instead of tackling this problem by the application of statistical models on the (short) observational series, we solve the problem by combining the surge model WAQUA/DCSMv5 with the output of all seasonal forecasts of the European Centre of Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) in the period 1981–2015, whose combination cumulates in a pseudo-observational series of more than 6000 years. We show that the Poisson process model leads to wrong results as it neglects the temporal correlations that are present on daily, weekly and monthly timescales. By counting the number of double events over a threshold of 2.5 m and assuming that the number of events is exponentially related to the threshold, it is found that two closures occur on average once in 150 years within a month, and once in 330 years within a week. The large uncertainty in these recurrence intervals of more than a factor of two is caused by the sensitivity of the results to the Gumbel parameters of the observed record, which are used for bias correction. Sea level rise has a significant impact on the recurrence time for both single and double closures. The recurrence time of single closures doubles with every 18 cm mean sea level rise (assuming that other influences remain unchanged) and double closures double with every 10 cm rise. This implies a 3–14 times higher probability of a double closure for a 15–40 cm sea level rise in 2050 (according to the KNMI climate scenarios).