Annual mortality rates and excess deaths of children under five in Iraq, 1991-98
Annual mortality rates and excess deaths of children under five in Iraq, 1991-98
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DOI：
10.1080/0032472032000097119
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发表时间：
2003-07-01
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
Jones, G
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ali, MM;Blacker, J;Jones, G
联合国儿童基金会1999年在伊拉克进行的两项平行家庭调查的数据显示，五岁以下儿童死亡率从1974年到1990年稳步下降，在1986 - 1990年期间达到约每1000例活产中有63例死亡。然后在1991年海湾战争那年急剧上升到每1000例中有118例。1991年到1998年期间伊拉克“超额”的五岁以下儿童死亡人数（即超出根据以往趋势预测的数量）是这样计算的：假设在此期间不是1999年调查所测的死亡率，而是（a）维持1986 - 1990年期间的平均死亡率，或者（b）死亡率继续以1974年到1990年期间所观察到的速度下降。根据这些计算，海湾战争及其到1998年的后续影响所导致的超额死亡人数估计在40万（假设a）到50万（假设b）之间。
Data from two parallel household surveys conducted in Iraq by UNICEF in 1999 show that under-5 mortality declined steadily from 1974 to 1990, reaching about 63 per 1,000 live births in the period 1986-90. It then rose dramatically to 118 per 1,000 in 1991, the year of the Gulf War The number of 'excess' under-5 deaths (i.e., the number in excess of the number predicted from past trends) in Iraq between 1991 and 1998 was calculated assuming that, instead of the rates measured by the 1999 survey for this period, either (a) average mortality rates for the period 1986-90 had been maintained, or (b) mortality had continued to decline at the rate observed between 1974 and 1990. According to these calculations, the estimated number of excess deaths resulting from the Gulf War and its aftermath up to 1998 was between 400,000 (assumption a) and 500,000 (assumption b).