Resource depletion calculated by the ratio of the reserve plus cumulative consumption to the crustal abundance for gold
Resource depletion calculated by the ratio of the reserve plus cumulative consumption to the crustal abundance for gold
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根据黄金储量加上累计消耗量与地壳丰度之比计算资源枯竭度
DOI：
10.1007/bf02257577
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发表时间：
1995
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
T. Adachi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
T. Nishiyama;T. Adachi
世界矿物消费量急剧增加，没有迹象表明这种增长可能在不久的将来停止。目前，新的发现和技术以超过枯竭的速度增加了各种矿产品的储量。因此，预期寿命几乎保持不变。然而，这种情况在未来是否可持续值得怀疑。因此，我们对未来的大部分注意力都集中在潜在的可回收资源上。根据地壳丰度与目前可开采黄金储量之间的关系，估计了地壳中35种矿物的潜在可开采资源。储量加累计消耗量与黄金丰度的比值适用于计算其他矿产资源的储量，因为黄金具有最高的储量勘探利润率。从经济学的角度来看，黄金的价格是33种其他资源平均价值的350倍，用于计算产量与价格。在过去20年中，为应对高价格，开发了新的采矿技术和新的加工方法。结果，现在发现的储量是1970年的五倍，过去20年消耗的储量是1970年的两倍。其他矿产品是否能达到黄金那样的储量加累计消费量与丰度之比是值得怀疑的。利用这一概念，根据黄金储量加累积消费量与丰度的比率，计算了35种矿物资源在现有技术下的地球资源极限。尽管从地壳中的矿床中可回收的铅、银、锡、硼、铜和汞的吨数相对较低，但这些金属的丰度显然足以满足未来的供应。然而，考虑到黄金的价格与世界产量相比非常高而造成的特殊情况，人们担心这些金属的价格急剧上涨或枯竭，因为从地球化学的角度来看，这些金属的寿命较短。
The magnitude of the world's mineral consumption has increased sharply, and there is no sign that growth is likely to stop in the near future. Currently, new discoveries and technology add to the reserves of varous mineral commodities at a rate that has exceeded depletion. As a result, life expectancies have remained nearly constant. However, it is questionable whether this condition is sustainable in the future. Therefore, most of our attention to the future has been focused on potentially recoverable resources. The potentially recoverable resources for 35 minerals in the Earth's crust were estimated based on the relationship between crustal abundance and the reserve of currently recoverable gold. The ratio of the reserve plus cumulative consumption to the abundance of gold is appropriate for calculating reserves of other mineral resources because gold has the highest profit margin for exploration of reserves. From an economic perspective, the price of gold is 350 times the mean value of 33 other resources for calculating production versus price. New mining technologies and new processing methods have been developed during the last 20 years as a response to high prices. As a result, five times the reserves available in 1970 have now been discovered, and two times the reserves available in 1970 were consumed during the past two decades. It is questionable whether other mineral commodities can reach the ratio of reserve plus cumulative consumption to abundance that gold does. Using this concept, the limit of the Earth's resources under present technology was calculated for 35 mineral resources, based on the ratio of the reserve plus cumulative consumption to abundance for gold. Even though recoverable tonnage of lead, silver, tin, boron, copper, and mercury from ore deposits in the Earth's crust is relatively low, the abundance of these metals is apparently sufficient for future supplies. However, considering the special situation of gold created by its very high price compared to world production, there is anxiety concerning steep increases in the price or depletion of these metals, which have a shorter lifetime from a geochemical point of view.