An inventory-based approach for modeling single- tree storm damage — experiences with the winter storm of 1999 in southwestern Germany
An inventory-based approach for modeling single- tree storm damage — experiences with the winter storm of 1999 in southwestern Germany
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基于库存的单树风暴损害建模方法 — 1999 年德国西南部冬季风暴的经验
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发表时间：
2010
期刊：
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通讯作者：
U. Kohnle
中科院分区：
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作者：
Matthias Schmidt;M. Hanewinkel;G. Kändler;E. Kublin;U. Kohnle
基于可追溯到德国巴登-符腾堡州1999年冬季“Lothar”大风的单棵树损害数据，建立了一个统计模型来估计单棵树的风暴损害风险。这些数据是从德国国家森林资源清查中汇编出来的。该模型试图分离树木的具体变量，地形，现场条件和流场相关的损害概率的影响。通过应用一种广义可加性模型，可以同时拟合空间趋势函数，解决了实际流场参数信息缺失的关键问题。该模型预测的风险热点的地理位置与林务局评估的风暴损失的实际分布模式相吻合。树高是影响危害程度的最重要因素之一，而高径比对危害概率的影响要小得多。挪威云杉（Picea abies（L.）喀斯特）。组的受害潜力最大，其次是银冷杉（Abies alba米勒）-花旗松（Pseudotsuga menziesii（Mirb.）Franco）和欧洲赤松（Pinus sylvestris L.）- 落叶松组落叶树的预测概率一般低于针叶树。从西到南暴露的位置承担相当高的损害风险，与轻度或非涝渍土壤相比，涝渍土壤显示出更高的预测概率。简历“：一个统计模型，用于估计一年中树木造成的死亡风险-
Based on individual tree damage data dating back to the gale 'Lothar' (winter 1999) in Baden-Wurttemberg, Germany, a statistical model was developed to estimate the risk of storm damage for individual trees. The data were com- piled from the National German Forest Inventory. The model attempts to separate the effects of tree-specific variables, topography, site conditions and flow field related effects on damage probability. The crucial problem of missing informa- tion on the actual flow field parameters was solved by applying a generalized additive model that enables the simultaneous fit of a spatial trend function. The geographical location of risk hotspots as predicted by the model correspond well to the actual distribution pattern of storm damage as assessed by the forest service. Tree height proved to be one of the most im- portant factors affecting the level of damage, while height to diameter at breast height ratio influences damage probability to a much lesser extent. The Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) group has the highest potential to be damaged fol- lowed by the silver fir (Abies alba Miller) - Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) group and the Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) - larches (Larix spp.) group. Predicted probabilities for deciduous trees are generally lower than those of conifers. West- to south-exposed locations bear a considerably higher damage risk and waterlogged soils show an in- creased predicted probability compared with slightly or not waterlogged soils. Resume´ : Un modele statistique a eteelaborepour estimer les risques de dommages causes par une tempete aux arbres in-