Seasonal Solow Residuals and Christmas: A Case for Labor Hoarding and Increasing Returns
Seasonal Solow Residuals and Christmas: A Case for Labor Hoarding and Increasing Returns
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季节性索洛剩余和圣诞节：劳动力囤积和收益递增的案例
DOI：
10.2307/2601103
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发表时间：
1998
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Jim Nason
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
R. Braun;C. Evans;M. Eichenbaum;Jim Hamilton;Bob Chirinko;J. Rotemberg;Jim Nason
在未经调整的汇总数据中，测量的索洛残差表现出很大的季节性变化。全要素生产率在四季度以16%的年率快速增长，一季度以年率-24%的年率大幅回落。本文认为索洛残差的季节性变化有两种可能的解释：劳动力囤积和规模收益增加。使用一种技术上不存在外生季节性变化、第四季度只有一次季节性需求变化的指标，我们提出了以下问题：在索洛残差的总季节性变化中，有多少可以在圣诞节前得到解释？这个问题的答案令人惊讶。随着回报的增加和劳动努力的时变，圣诞节足以解释所有四个季度索洛剩余、消费、平均生产率和产出的季节性变化。作者对未经季节调整的数据的分析揭示了劳动力囤积和提高回报的重要作用，而这些在调整后的数据中很难确定。
In aggregate unadjusted data, measured Solow residuals exhibit large seasonal variations. Total Factor Productivity grows rapidly in the fourth quarter at an annual rate of 16 percent and regresses sharply in the first quarter at an annual rate of -24 percent. This paper considers two potential explanations for the measured seasonal variation in the Solow residual: labor hoarding and increasing returns to scale. Using a specification that allows for no exogenous seasonal variation in technology and a single seasonal demand shift in the fourth quarter, we ask the following question: how much of the total seasonal variation in the measured Solow residual can be explained by Christmas? The answer to this question is surprising. With increasing returns and time varying labor effort, Christmas is sufficient to explain the seasonal variation in the Solow residual, consumption, average productivity, and output in all four quarters. The authors' analysis of seasonally unadjusted data uncovers important roles for labor hoarding and increasing returns which are difficult to identify in adjusted data.