Simulating demographic and socioeconomic processes on household level and implications for giant panda habitats
Simulating demographic and socioeconomic processes on household level and implications for giant panda habitats
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DOI：
10.1016/s0304-3800(01)00267-8
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发表时间：
2001-05-30
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
Zhang, HM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
An, L;Liu, JG;Zhang, HM
人类活动严重影响了野生动物的栖息地。尽管许多研究已经证明了人类影响的生态影响，但这些人类影响背后的社会经济驱动因素却很少得到研究。我们开发了一个以家庭为基础的，随机的，动态的模型，模拟家庭人口和社会经济相互作用的薪材的使用，影响栖息地的数量和质量的大熊猫（Ailuropoda melanoleuca）的一个关键因素的影响。以卧龙自然保护区（中国）为例，该模型模拟了家庭的生产和消费过程，并综合了各种人口和社会经济因素。1998年在保护区内进行的住户访谈为参数化提供了数据。模拟结果与构建模型所用的数据和一组独立数据都很好地吻合。年龄结构和耕地面积是影响薪材消耗的最敏感因素，应引起大熊猫栖息地保护的重视。该模型有助于保护区管理者了解当地经济、文化传统与生境退化之间的相互关系，从而促进更科学、更经济的决策。(C)2001 Elsevier Science B.V.保留所有权利。
Human activities have significantly affected wildlife habitats. Although the ecological effects of human impacts have been demonstrated in many studies, the socioeconomic drivers underlying these human impacts have seldom been studied. We developed a household-based, stochastic, and dynamic model that simulates the impacts of household demographic and socioeconomic interactions an fuelwood use, a key factor affecting the quantity and quality of habitats for the giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca). Using Wolong Nature Reserve (China) as a case study, this model mimics household production and consumption processes and integrates various demographic and socioeconomic factors. Household interviews conducted in 1998 within the Reserve provided the data for parameterization. The simulation results fit well with both the data used in constructing the model and with a set of independent data. Age structure and cropland area were found to be the most sensitive factors in terms of fuelwood consumption, and thus deserve more attention in panda habitat conservation. This model could help reserve managers to understand the interrelationships among local economy, local cultural traditions, and habitat degradation, facilitating more scientific and economically efficient policymaking. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.