The effect of foregone payoffs on underweighting small probability events
The effect of foregone payoffs on underweighting small probability events
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DOI：
10.1002/bdm.509
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发表时间：
2006
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
E. Yechiam;J. Busemeyer
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
E. Yechiam;J. Busemeyer
前景收益增加了关于未被选择的备选方案的结果的信息。本文考察了在重复选择任务中，放弃收益对低估罕见但可能的事件的影响。以前的研究没有证明任何长期的影响，放弃的回报（重复呈现的任务）时，放弃的回报并没有增加太多的信息。本文件着重说明了产生这种长期影响的条件和促成因素。实验研究比较了在不同的负收益稀有程度下，放弃收益的影响。它表明，放弃的回报增加了选择风险的替代品与极其罕见的和高度负面的结果，这种效果并没有减少与重复呈现的任务。这些发现可以用一个令人惊讶的简单学习模型来概括。研究结果进行了讨论的背景下，潜在的社会学习的长期影响。版权所有© 2006约翰威利父子有限公司。
Foregone payoffs add information about the outcomes for alternatives that are not chosen. The present paper examines the effect of foregone payoffs on underweighting rare but possible events in repeated choice tasks. Previous studies have not demonstrated any long-lasting effects of foregone payoffs (following repeated presentation of a task) when foregone payoffs do not add much information. The present paper highlights the conditions and the contributing factors for the occurrence of such long-lasting effects. An experimental study compares the effect of foregone payoffs under different degrees of rarity of the negative payoff. It is demonstrated that foregone payoffs increase the selection from risky alternatives with extremely rare and highly negative outcomes, and that this effect does not diminish with repeated presentation of the task. These findings can be summarized using a surprisingly simple reinforcement-learning model. The findings are discussed in the context of the potential long-term effect of social learning. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.