A quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment framework for compound flooding considering hazard inter-dependencies and interactions
A quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment framework for compound flooding considering hazard inter-dependencies and interactions
复制标题
考虑灾害关联和相互作用的复合驱多灾害风险定量评价框架
DOI：
10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.127477
复制
发表时间：
2022-01
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
X. Ming;Q. Liang;R. Dawson;X. Xia;J. Hou
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
X. Ming;Q. Liang;R. Dawson;X. Xia;J. Hou
多灾害风险评估可以对多种灾害的影响进行全面分析，但仍需解决三个方面的主要挑战：（1）适当考虑灾害的相互依赖性，（2）灾害相互作用的物理模型，（3）全面定量的风险评估，以显示损失概率。复合洪水是一个典型的多灾害问题，涉及到多个灾害驱动器的并发，如暴雨，极端的河流流量，风暴潮。这些危险驱动因素可能来自相同的天气系统，因此在统计上相互依赖，在物理上重叠，并在同一地区相互作用。本文旨在解决上述挑战，并制定一个综合评估框架，以量化复合洪水风险。该框架是基于灾害风险评估的三个典型组成部分，即危险性，脆弱性和暴露分析。在风险分析中，利用Copula函数和风险相关性分析方法估计了复合洪水三种风险驱动因子的联合概率和重现期分布，然后利用Copula函数生成随机多风险事件，驱动二维高性能水动力模型生成概率淹没图和频率-淹没曲线。易损性和暴露性分析提供了风险要素的损害函数，利用频率-淹没曲线量化多灾种风险。该框架应用于大伦敦及其下游泰晤士河口，以展示其分析危害相互作用和相互依赖关系的能力，以产生完全定量的风险评估结果，如风险曲线量化的损失概率和风险地图说明住宅建筑物的年度预期损失。
Multi-hazard risk assessment may provide comprehensive analysis of the impact of multiple hazards but still needs to resolve major challenges in three aspects: (1) proper consideration of hazard inter-dependency, (2) physically based modelling of hazard interactions, and (3) fully quantitative risk assessment to show the probability of loss. Compound flooding is a typical multi-hazard problem that involves the concurrence of multiple hazard drivers, e.g. heavy rainfall, extreme river flow, and storm surge. These hazard drivers may result from the same weather system and are thus statistically inter-dependent, physically overlayed and interacted in the same region. This paper aims to address the mentioned challenges and develop an integrated assessment framework to quantify compound flood risk. The framework is constructed based on the three typical components in disaster risk assessment, i.e. hazard, vulnerability and exposure analysis. In hazard analysis, joint probability and return period distributions of the three hazard drivers of compound flooding are estimated using Copula functions with hazard dependency analysis, which are then used to generate random multi-hazard events to drive a 2D high-performance hydrodynamic model to produce probabilistic inundation maps and frequency-inundation curves. Vulnerability and exposure analysis provides damage functions of the elements at risk, which are used to quantify multi-hazard risk with the frequency-inundation curves. The framework is applied in the Greater London and its downstream Thames estuary to demonstrate its capability to analyse hazard interactions and inter-dependencies to produce fully quantitative risk assessment results such as risk curves quantifying the probability of loss and risk maps illustrating the annual expected loss of residential buildings.