EXITitis in the UK: Gravity Estimates in the Aftermath of Brexit.
EXITitis in the UK: Gravity Estimates in the Aftermath of Brexit.
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DOI：
10.1007/s10645-023-09421-3
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发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
1.6
通讯作者：
Kohl, Tristan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Brakman, Steven;Garretsen, Harry;Kohl, Tristan
英国退出欧盟对国际贸易产生了破坏性影响。作为英国脱欧后“全球英国”战略的一部分，英国正在寻求与世界各国签署一系列自由贸易协定，包括加拿大、日本、韩国、墨西哥、挪威、瑞士、土耳其，可能还有美国。在更近的地方，英国正面临越来越大的压力，要求它劝阻苏格兰、北方爱尔兰和威尔士寻求独立，以重拾与欧盟断绝的关系。我们用世界主要经济体的最先进的结构引力模型分析了这些情景的经济后果。我们发现，“全球英国”产生的贸易创造不足以弥补英国退欧导致的贸易损失。我们的研究结果还表明，脱离英国本身将对英国的权力下放国家造成更大的脱欧后经济损害。然而，当脱离英国与重新获得欧盟成员国资格相结合时，这些影响可能会被抵消。
The withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union has had disruptive effects on international trade. As part of its ‘Global Britain’ strategy in the wake of Brexit, the UK is pursuing a series of Free Trade Agreements with countries around the world, including Canada, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Norway, Switzerland, Turkey and possibly the United States. Closer to home, the UK is under mounting pressure to dissuade Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales from seeking independence to regain the severed ties with the EU. We analyze the economic consequences of these scenarios with a state-of-the-art structural gravity model for major economies around the world. We find that ‘Global Britain’ yields insufficient trade creation to compensate for Brexit-induced trade losses. Our results also reveal that secession from the UK in itself would inflict greater post-Brexit economic harm on the devolved nations of Great Britain. Nevertheless, these effects could be offset when secession from the UK is combined with regained EU membership.