An Integrated Macroeconomic Model for Assessing Urban Sustainability
An Integrated Macroeconomic Model for Assessing Urban Sustainability
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DOI：
10.1068/b31113
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发表时间：
2005-10
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
M. Fung;C. Kennedy
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Fung;C. Kennedy
提出了一种将区域经济模型与城市代谢模型相结合的宏观方法。社会经济系统与环境系统、微观与宏观尺度之间的城市模式整合存在一致性和聚集性的挑战。使用计量经济模型作为基础，可以提供具有低数据需求的灵活结构，可以潜在地与微观级流程模型集成。针对多伦多地区的经济，建立并验证了这一计量经济模型。经济模型与温室气体排放模型相结合，该模型模拟了住宅、交通和固体废物部门的排放。在乐观和悲观的外生经济气候下，模拟排放至2010年。在没有技术变革的情况下，排放量将增加30%左右，这主要是由于人口增长（22%-23%），而人口增长对经济增长相对不敏感。研究了通过改变土地使用发展和增加固体废物回收来减少排放的可能性。
A macrolevel approach for integrating regional economic models with urban metabolism models is developed. Challenges with consistency and aggregation persist in the integration of urban models between socioeconomic and environmental systems, and between the micro and macro scale. Using an econometric model as a foundation offers a flexible structure, with low data requirements, that might potentially be integrated with microlevel process models. Such an econometric model is developed and verified for the economy of the Toronto region. The economic model is integrated with a greenhouse gas emission model that simulates emissions from the residential, transportation, and solid waste sectors. Emissions are simulated to 2010 for optimistic and pessimistic exogenous economic climates. In the absence of technological change, emissions will increase in the order of 30%, largely as a result of population growth (22%–23%), which is relatively insensitive to economic growth. The potential to decrease emissions through changing land-use development and increased recycling of solid waste is examined.