Modeling the habitat suitability for the arbovirus vector Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in Germany
Modeling the habitat suitability for the arbovirus vector Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in Germany
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DOI：
10.1007/s00436-015-4822-3
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发表时间：
2016-03-01
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Klimpel, Sven
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Koch, Lisa K.;Cunze, Sarah;Klimpel, Sven
气候变化增加了全球节肢动物传播病毒再次爆发的风险。这些病毒通过节肢动物媒介（通常是蚊子）传播。由于全球贸易和旅游业的增加，这些媒介物种经常被意外引入到超出其原来分布范围的许多国家。白纹伊蚊是一种著名的病媒，2007年在德国首次被发现，但直到今天似乎还没有定殖。然而，已知该物种存在于其他温带地区，在德国定居的风险仍然存在，特别是在预测的气候变化的情况下。因此，该研究的目标是估计 Ae 的潜在分布。德国的白纹伊蚊。我们使用生态位模型来估计该物种在当前和预测的未来气候条件下的潜在栖息地适宜性。根据我们的模型，德国西部和南部已经有两个地区适合 Ae。当前气候条件下的白纹伊蚊。其中一个地区位于巴登符腾堡州，另一个地区位于鲁尔区的北莱茵威斯特法伦州。此外，对未来气候条件的预测显示，整个德国模拟的栖息地适宜性有所增加。艾。据认为，白纹伊蚊比其他热带病媒更能适应寒冷的气温，因此，气候变化可能会引发对德国公众健康的严重威胁。我们的建模结果可以帮助优化德国目前实施的监测计划的设计。
Climatic changes raise the risk of re-emergence of arthropod-borne virus outbreaks globally. These viruses are transmitted by arthropod vectors, often mosquitoes. Due to increasing worldwide trade and tourism, these vector species are often accidentally introduced into many countries beyond their former distribution range. Aedes albopictus, a well-known disease vector, was detected for the first time in Germany in 2007, but seems to have failed establishment until today. However, the species is known to occur in other temperate regions and a risk for establishment in Germany remains, especially in the face of predicted climate change. Thus, the goal of the study was to estimate the potential distribution of Ae. albopictus in Germany. We used ecological niche modeling in order to estimate the potential habitat suitability for this species under current and projected future climatic conditions. According to our model, there are already two areas in western and southern Germany that appear suitable for Ae. albopictus under current climatic conditions. One of these areas lies in Baden-Wuerttemberg, the other in North-Rhine Westphalia in the Ruhr region. Furthermore, projections under future climatic conditions show an increase of the modeled habitat suitability throughout Germany. Ae. albopictus is supposed to be better acclimated to colder temperatures than other tropical vectors and thus, might become, triggered by climate change, a serious threat to public health in Germany. Our modeling results can help optimizing the design of monitoring programs currently in place in Germany.