Maize growing duration was prolonged across China in the past three decades under the combined effects of temperature, agronomic management, and cultivar shift
Maize growing duration was prolonged across China in the past three decades under the combined effects of temperature, agronomic management, and cultivar shift
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DOI：
10.1111/gcb.12684
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发表时间：
2014-12-01
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
Rotter, Reimund P.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tao, Fulu;Zhang, Shuai;Rotter, Reimund P.
利用1981-2009年全国112个国家农业气象试验站的玉米物候观测资料，分析了玉米物候的时空变化及其与温度变化和品种转换的关系。更大范围的数据集使我们能够更精确地估计温度变化和品种转换对玉米物候的影响。结果表明，玉米播种期显著提前的站点有26.0%，主要集中在西北、西南和东北地区的春玉米播种期，显著延迟的站点有8.0%，主要集中在东北和华北平原。36.6%的测站玉米成熟期显著延迟，主要集中在东北和华北地区。结果表明，41.1%的测站玉米全生育期持续时间显著延长，72.3%的测站玉米全生育期平均气温显著升高，19.6%的测站玉米全生育期平均气温显著升高，92.9%的测站玉米全生育期平均气温与玉米全生育期持续时间呈显著负相关，42.9%的测站玉米全生育期平均气温与玉米全生育期持续时间呈显著负相关。用积温单位法分析了温度变化和品种转换的影响，结果表明，温度升高使抽穗期和成熟期提前，使81.3%、82.1%和83.9%的测站的GPw持续时间平均分别缩短3.2、6.0和3.5天/10年。与此相反，品种转换使75.0%、94.6%和92.9%的站点的抽穗期和成熟期推迟，GPw持续时间平均分别延长1.5、6.5和6.5天/10年。我们的研究结果表明，玉米生产正在通过改变播种期和采用生长期较长的品种来适应持续的气候变化。本文提出的玉米物候的时空变化可以进一步指导玉米生产的适应方案的制定。
Maize phenology observations at 112 national agro-meteorological experiment stations across China spanning the years 1981-2009 were used to investigate the spatiotemporal changes of maize phenology, as well as the relations to temperature change and cultivar shift. The greater scope of the dataset allows us to estimate the effects of temperature change and cultivar shift on maize phenology more precisely. We found that maize sowing date advanced significantly at 26.0% of stations mainly for spring maize in northwestern, southwestern and northeastern China, although delayed significantly at 8.0% of stations mainly in northeastern China and the North China Plain (NCP). Maize maturity date delayed significantly at 36.6% of stations mainly in the northeastern China and the NCP. As a result, duration of maize whole growing period (GPw) was prolonged significantly at 41.1% of stations, although mean temperature (Tmean) during GPw increased at 72.3% of stations, significantly at 19.6% of stations, and Tmean was negatively correlated with the duration of GPw at 92.9% of stations and significantly at 42.9% of stations. Once disentangling the effects of temperature change and cultivar shift with an approach based on accumulated thermal development unit, we found that increase in temperature advanced heading date and maturity date and reduced the duration of GPw at 81.3%, 82.1% and 83.9% of stations on average by 3.2, 6.0 and 3.5days/decade, respectively. By contrast, cultivar shift delayed heading date and maturity date and prolonged the duration of GPw at 75.0%, 94.6% and 92.9% of stations on average by 1.5, 6.5 and 6.5days/decade, respectively. Our results suggest that maize production is adapting to ongoing climate change by shift of sowing date and adoption of cultivars with longer growing period. The spatiotemporal changes of maize phenology presented here can further guide the development of adaptation options for maize production in near future.