Wildfire risk science facilitates adaptation of fire-prone social-ecological systems to the new fire reality
Wildfire risk science facilitates adaptation of fire-prone social-ecological systems to the new fire reality
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/ab6498
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发表时间：
2020-02-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Gilbertson-Day, Julie
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Dunn, Christopher J.;O'Connor, Christopher D.;Gilbertson-Day, Julie
巨大而严重的野火是美国西部日益干旱的一个明显后果。越来越多的人达成共识，认为人类社区、土地管理人员和消防管理人员需要适应并学会与野火共存。然而，无数的人类和生态因素制约了适应，现有的以科学为基础的管理战略不足以将火作为一个问题和解决方案来解决。为此，我们提出了一种新的风险科学方法，通过有意识地整合社会、生态和火灾管理系统的需求，使野火应对决策、缓解机会和土地管理目标保持一致。我们使用美国太平洋西北部易发生火灾的景观作为我们的研究区域，并报告和描述了三个互补的基于风险的分析工具-定量野火风险评估、灭火难度图和潜在控制点地图集-如何形成火灾管理中的适应性治理的基础。这些工具将野火风险与火灾管理的困难和机遇结合在一起，提供了更完整的野火风险管理挑战图景。利用将当地经验知识与这些工具相结合的最新和正在进行的经验，我们提供了例子，并讨论了这些地理空间数据集如何创建跨越多个空间尺度和用途的基于风险的规划结构。这些用途包括预先规划战略野火应对，实施安全的野火应对，平衡风险和成功的可能性，以及调整非野火缓解机会，以更直接地支持野火风险管理。我们明确地将重点放在多个司法管辖区的情况上，以展示这些工具如何突出野火风险缓解的共同责任。通过整合定量风险科学、专家判断和适应性共同管理，这一过程提供了一条亟需的途径，使易发生火灾的社会生态系统在日益干旱的美国西部变得更具响应性和适应性，并与火共存。
Large and severe wildfires are an observable consequence of an increasingly arid American West. There is increasing consensus that human communities, land managers, and fire managers need to adapt and learn to live with wildfires. However, a myriad of human and ecological factors constrain adaptation, and existing science-based management strategies are not sufficient to address fire as both a problem and solution. To that end, we present a novel risk-science approach that aligns wildfire response decisions, mitigation opportunities, and land management objectives by consciously integrating social, ecological and fire management system needs. We use fire-prone landscapes of the US Pacific Northwest as our study area, and report on and describe how three complementary risk-based analytic tools-quantitative wildfire risk assessment, mapping of suppression difficulty, and atlases of potential control locations-can form the foundation for adaptive governance in fire management. Together, these tools integrate wildfire risk with fire management difficulties and opportunities, providing a more complete picture of the wildfire risk management challenge. Leveraging recent and ongoing experience integrating local experiential knowledge with these tools, we provide examples and discuss how these geospatial datasets create a risk-based planning structure that spans multiple spatial scales and uses. These uses include pre-planning strategic wildfire response, implementing safe wildfire response balancing risk with likelihood of success, and alignment of non-wildfire mitigation opportunities to support wildfire risk management more directly. We explicitly focus on multi-jurisdictional landscapes to demonstrate how these tools highlight the shared responsibility of wildfire risk mitigation. By integrating quantitative risk science, expert judgement and adaptive co-management, this process provides a much-needed pathway to transform fire-prone social ecological systems to be more responsive and adaptable to change and live with fire in an increasingly arid American West.