Climate change in the subtropics: the impacts of projected averages and variability on banana productivity
Climate change in the subtropics: the impacts of projected averages and variability on banana productivity
复制标题
亚热带气候变化：预测平均值和变异性对香蕉生产力的影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
David A. Brown
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
I. Bergh;J. Ramírez;C. Staver;D. Turner;A. Jarvis;David A. Brown
当水分充足，日气温在20-30摄氏度范围内时，香蕉全年生产的潜力得到最好的体现。然而，主要面向全国市场的香蕉生产在许多亚热带地区的发展条件并不理想。香蕉在巴西南部、巴拉圭和阿根廷，在北非、中东和南部非洲国家，在中国和印度北部是一种重要的经济作物。在这些地区，香蕉受到次适温度和短日数的影响。夏季非常有利的温度和长日数还可能包括35摄氏度以上的短时间极端温度，而降雨量也非常多变。气候变化对选定的亚热带产区的影响分两步模拟：在当前生长条件下，使用生态作物模型；在SRES-A2(一切照常)排放情景下，使用一套19个政府间气候变化专门委员会(气候变化专门委员会)全球气候模型，模拟2020年和2050年的气候变化影响。模拟结果表明，当前香蕉在亚热带地区的适宜性远低于热带地区，亚热带地区的适宜性差异很大。在考虑的九个亚热带地区中，两个地区的条件在2020年代之前有所改善，四个地区基本不受影响，三个地区的适宜性较低。我们的分析还表明，就环境条件而言，某些地点在全球范围内具有广泛的代表性，为地点之间的技术转让提供了选择。其他地点几乎没有类似的地点，这意味着需要在技术开发和转让的方法上仔细选择地点。这项研究利用特定地点的信息和广泛可用的工具来了解亚热带气候变化的潜在影响。然而，为了充分了解气候变化对香蕉的影响，这里使用的建模工具需要完全适合半多年生作物，以捕捉季节性温度和降雨变异性对作物周期长度和潜在产量的影响。
The potential for bananas to produce year round is best expressed when water is abundant and daily temperatures are in the range of 20-30°C. Zones with these conditions produce fruit for the global market. However, banana production, mainly for national markets, has developed in many subtropical areas under less than optimum conditions. Bananas are an important cash crop in southern Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina, in countries of North Africa, the Middle East and southern Africa, and in China and northern India. In these regions, bananas are subject to sub-optimum temperatures and short days. Highly favorable temperatures and long days in the summer may also include short periods of extreme temperatures above 35°C, while rainfall is also highly variable. The effects of climate change on selected subtropical production areas were modeled in a two-step procedure using the EcoCrop model, under current growing conditions and for 2020 and 2050 using a set of 19 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Global Climate Models (GCMs) under the SRES-A2 (business as usual) emission scenario. The modeling showed that current suitability for banana production in the subtropics is much lower than in the tropics with great variation in suitability within the subtropics. Of nine subtropical regions considered, two have improved conditions by 2020s, four are largely unaffected and three have a lower suitability. Our analysis also showed that, in terms of environmental conditions, certain sites are widely represented globally, offering options for technology transfer between sites. Other sites have few similar sites, which means that sites need to be carefully selected for approaches to technology development and transfer. The study leveraged site-specific information with widely available tools to understand potential effects of climate change in the subtropics. However, in order to fully understand the impacts of climate change on banana, the modeling tools used here need to be fully suited for semi-perennial crops to capture the effects of seasonal temperature and rainfall variability on crop cycle length and potential yields.