Transformative pathways - Using integrated assessment models more effectively to open up plausible and desirable low-carbon futures
Transformative pathways - Using integrated assessment models more effectively to open up plausible and desirable low-carbon futures
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DOI：
10.1016/j.erss.2021.102220
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发表时间：
2021-08-14
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
van Vuuren, Detlef
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Braunreiter, Lukas;van Beek, Lisette;van Vuuren, Detlef
综合评估模型（IAM）和由此产生的情景在气候政策的科学-政策界面中变得越来越制度化和相关。尽管它们在设想低碳未来方面具有分析优势，但它们与气候政治的跨国科学政策界面的共同演变也导致了对一组特定技术经济未来的关注，这些未来通常基于一组相对狭窄的假设。这使人们的注意力偏离了IAMs几乎没有研究过的替代方案，但从社会的角度来看，这些替代方案可能更可取。我们认为，基于研究的模型和情景应该支持而不是缩小对可能和理想未来的审议，并为制定社会理想的变革提供动力。因此，我们提出了三个未来的发展和应用方向：1)通过反复的参与式参与和基于世界观的场景探索，整合关于可行性和可取性的多种观点；2)寻求与艺术和人文学科的合作，以扩大超越现状的想象未来的范围；3)使预测的未来更加有形和经验，以便不同的社会行动者群体能够理解并真正参与其中。通过在这些建议中最优地利用iam无可争议的分析优势，我们相信它们可以促进更广泛的社会辩论，探讨通往低碳未来的变革途径。
Integrated assessment models (IAM) and resulting scenarios have become increasingly institutionalised and relevant in the science-policy interface of climate policy. Despite their analytical strengths to conceive low-carbon futures, their co-evolution with the transnational science-policy interface of climate politics has also led to a focus on a specific set of techno-economic futures that are typically based on a relatively narrow set of assumptions. This deviates attention from alternatives that are hardly studied by IAMs, but might be more desirable from a societal perspective. We argue that research-based models and scenarios should support rather than narrow down deliberations on possible and desirable futures and provide an impetus to enact socially desirable change. Accordingly, we propose three future directions regarding the development and use of IAMs: 1) incorporate a plurality of perspectives on plausibility and desirability through iterative participatory engagement and worldview-based scenario exploration, 2) seek collaboration with the arts and humanities to expand the range of imagined futures beyond the status quo and 3) make projected futures more tangible and experiential so that diverse societal actor groups can understand and genuinely engage with them. By deploying the indisputable analytical strengths of IAMs optimally within these suggestions, we believe they can facilitate broader societal debates about transformative pathways to low-carbon futures.