Prediction rule for estimating advanced colorectal neoplasm risk in average-risk populations in southern Jiangsu Province
Prediction rule for estimating advanced colorectal neoplasm risk in average-risk populations in southern Jiangsu Province
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DOI：
10.3978/j.issn.1000-9604.2014.02.03
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发表时间：
2014-02-01
影响因子：
5.1
通讯作者：
Ning, Yueji
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Chen, Guochang;Mao, Boneng;Ning, Yueji
目的：建立苏南地区结直肠晚期肿瘤（CN）风险评分体系，评价其筛查效果。方法：选取接受结肠镜检查的平均危险人群905例为研究对象。采用多变量logistic回归分析方法建立晚期肿瘤发生风险评分体系，通过预测一致性、区分能力和筛查准确性评价其筛查效果。结果：评分系统由年龄、性别、冠心病、鸡蛋摄入量和大便频率5个变量组成。结果显示，该方法具有较好的预测一致性（P=0.205）和鉴别能力[受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线下面积为0.75,95%可信区间（95% CI）为0.69 ~ 0.82]。因此，以2.5分作为筛选临界值，其敏感性、特异性、准确性、阳性预测值、阴性预测值、阳性似然比、阴性似然比分别为93.8%、47.6%、50.1%、9.1%、99.3%、1.79、0.13。结论：所建立的评分系统具有良好的筛查效果，可作为苏南地区中危人群CN筛查的筛查工具。
Objective: The aim of this study was to establish the risk scoring system towards the advanced colorectal neoplasm (CN) risk in the average-risk populations in the southern Jiangsu Province, and to evaluate the screening efficacy.Methods: Totally 905 cases of the average-risk populations who received the colonoscopy were selected as the objective. The multivariate logistic regression analysis method was used to establish the scoring system towards the occurrence risk of the advanced tumor, and its screening efficacy was evaluated through the prediction consistency, distinguishing ability and screening accuracy.Results: The scoring system consisted of five variables, namely age, gender, coronary heart disease, egg intake and stool frequency. The results revealed that it had good prediction consistency (P=0.205) and distinguishing ability [the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.75, with 95% confidence interval (95% CI) of 0.69-0.82]. Thus, 2.5 points was set as the screening cutoff value, and its sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, positive likelihood ratio and negative likelihood ratio were 93.8 %, 47.6%, 50.1%, 9.1%, 99.3%, 1.79 and 0.13, respectively.Conclusions: The established scoring system had good screening efficacy, and can be used as the screening tool applying to the CN screening within the average-risk populations in the southern Jiangsu Province.