On Canadian methodologies of probabilistic seismic risk estimation
On Canadian methodologies of probabilistic seismic risk estimation
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加拿大概率地震风险评估方法论
DOI：
10.1785/bssa0690051549
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发表时间：
1979
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
W. Milne
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
D. Weichert;W. Milne
加拿大采用了三种估计地震危险性的概率方法。对极值法的重新评价表明，与Milne和Davenport的平均值法相比，极值法没有任何优势。后一种方法的基本假设在概念上有了改进，即从假定的震中有约束地释放历史地震和在可变时期内平均地震率。然后可以按照康奈尔的建议进行风险评估。将这种改进的平均值法的结果与Milne和Davenport平均值法的结果进行了比较。新地震风险估计的稳定性得到了提高，但典型地点对模型中不可避免的确定性因素的敏感性与旧方法相似。对于某些场址-震源-地震活动组合，地面运动的概率估计几乎可以变成准确定性。
Three probabilistic methods for the estimation of seismic risk have been used in Canada. A reevaluation of the extreme value method shows no advantages over the average value method of Milne and Davenport. Conceptual improvements in the underlying assumptions of the latter method are a constrained release of historical earthquakes from their presumed epicenters and the averaging of earthquake rates over variable periods. Risk estimation can then proceed as suggested by Cornell. Comparison of the results of this modification of the average number method shows similar results as the Milne and Davenport average value method. The stability of risk estimates against new earthquakes is improved, but sensitivities at typical sites toward unavoidable deterministic elements in the model are similar to the older method. For certain site-source-seismicity combinations probabilistic estimates of ground motion could become almost quasi-deterministic.