Assessment of Contributions of Climatic Variation and Human Activities to Streamflow Changes in the Lancang River, China
Assessment of Contributions of Climatic Variation and Human Activities to Streamflow Changes in the Lancang River, China
复制标题
气候变化和人类活动对澜沧江径流变化的贡献评估
DOI：
10.1007/s11269-014-0648-5
复制
发表时间：
2014-08-01
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
Yang, ZhiFeng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tang, Jian;Yin, Xin-An;Yang, ZhiFeng
澜沧江建坝后，径流量发生了变化，其水电站的建设和运行受到世界各国的关注。为了解决这些问题，有必要定量评估气候变化和人类活动对这些变化的相对贡献。在这项研究中，Mann-Kendall方法被用来评估水文气候数据的趋势。根据水电站水库建设时间轴，将径流资料分为基准期（1956-1985年）和变化期（1986-2008年）。采用BP神经网络模型对天然径流进行了重建。在年、季和月时间尺度上研究了气候变化和人类活动的贡献。结果表明，人类活动对流量变化的影响略大于气候变化，在每年的时间尺度（54.6%和45.4%，分别）。在季节时间尺度上，气候变化在丰水期的贡献较大（65.8%），而人类活动的贡献在旱季成为主导因素（85.3%）。在月时间尺度上，1、6、8、9月气候变化的贡献大于人类活动，其余8个月人类活动的贡献大于气候变化。人类活动和气候变化（RC）的相对贡献也被确定在单坝和梯级大坝期间，这些并不总是增加在三个时间尺度上，当大坝系统从单坝到梯级大坝。
The construction and operation of hydropower reservoirs on the Lancang River have drawn worldwide concern, because streamflow changes have occurred in this river since the introduction of dams. To address these concerns, it is necessary to quantitatively assess relative contributions of climatic variations and human activities to these changes. In this research, Mann-Kendall method was used to assess the trends in hydro-climatic data. The streamflow data were divided into a reference period (1956-1985) and a change period (1986-2008) based on hydropower reservoir construction timeline. The Back-Propagation Artificial Neural Network (BP-ANN) model was used to reconstruct natural streamflow. The contributions of climatic variations and human activities were investigated at the yearly, seasonal and monthly time scales. The results indicate that human activities exerted a slightly greater impact on flow changes than did climatic variations, at the yearly time scale (54.6 and 45.4 %, respectively). At the seasonal time scale, climatic variations made a greater contribution (65.8 %) during the wet season, while the contribution of human activities became the dominant factor during the dry season (85.3 %). At the monthly time scale, the contribution of climatic variations in January, June, August, and September was greater than that of human activities, while in the remaining eight months, human activities exerted a greater contribution than did climatic variation. The relative contributions of human activities and climatic variations (RCs) were also determined during the single- and cascade-dam periods; these did not always increase at the three time scales when dam system shifted from single-dam to cascade-dam.