Modelling Urban Population Densities in Beijing 1982-90: Suburbanisation and its Causes
Modelling Urban Population Densities in Beijing 1982-90: Suburbanisation and its Causes
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DOI：
10.1080/0042098993600
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发表时间：
1999-02
期刊：
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
Fahui Wang;Yixing Zhou
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Fahui Wang;Yixing Zhou
现有的关于城市人口密度的实证研究在发达国家比较丰富，而在发展中国家则相对较少。对于像中国这样的计划经济国家的城市，报道很少。部分原因是缺乏可靠的数据来源。本研究建立了北京市1982- 1990年人口密度模型。数据来源于1982年和1990年第三次和第四次全国人口普查，按街道一级汇总。这些分区的空间边界是从地方政府的各种来源和许多实地考察获得的。研究表明，北京市的密度分布也符合负指数分布，密度梯度逐渐平缓，中心截距逐渐减小。这一结果与西方城市的研究结果一致，意味着即使是社会主义城市也无法摆脱塑造城市结构的普遍力量。此外，GIS表面建模用于分析空间格局。虽然中心城区的人口大量减少，但郊区的人口却有不同程度的增长。这标志着北京郊区化的开始。然而，有些原因与西方国家不同。
The existing empirical research of urban population density is rich on developed countries but much less so on developing countries. On cities in a planned economy such as that of China, very little is reported. Part of the reason is the lack of reliable data sources. This research models the population densities in Beijing 1982-90. Data are from the third and fourth national population censuses in 1982 and 1990 respectively, and are aggregated at the level of sub-district (jie-dao). Spatial boundaries of these sub-districts are obtained from various sources of local governments and numerous field trips. The research shows that the negative exponential function also fits the density distributions in Beijing, the density gradient becomes flatter, and the city-centre intercept drops over time. The results are consistent with the findings on Western cities, implying that even a socialist city cannot escape the universal forces shaping urban structure. In addition, GIS surface modelling is used to analyse the spatial patterns. While central-city sub-districts have experienced significant loss of population, suburban sub-districts have gained growth at various scales. This signals the beginning of suburbanisation in Beijing. However, some of the causes are different from those in Western countries.