Transmission potential of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) onboard the diamond Princess Cruises Ship, 2020
Transmission potential of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) onboard the diamond Princess Cruises Ship, 2020
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DOI：
10.1016/j.idm.2020.02.003
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发表时间：
2020-01-01
影响因子：
8.8
通讯作者：
Chowell, Gerardo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mizumoto, Kenji;Chowell, Gerardo
于二零二零年一月至二月，公主邮轮上爆发COVID-19疫情。使用数学建模和时间序列发病率数据来描述乘客和机组人员之间的疫情轨迹，我们描述了疫情过程中传播潜力的变化。我们估计在封闭环境中的平均繁殖数达到了类似于11的值，这高于中国和新加坡社区水平传播动态报告的平均估计值（近似范围：1.1-7）。我们的研究结果表明，在日本政府实施了加强检疫控制后，与早期阶段的值相比，R-t大幅下降。最近对Rt的估计值大大低于流行阈值，表明新型冠状病毒的二次爆发不太可能在钻石公主船上发生。(c)2020年，任作家。Elsevier B. V.代表KeAi Communications Co.制作和主办，这是一个在CC BY-NC-ND许可证下的开放获取文章（http：//creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/）。
An outbreak of COVID-19 developed aboard the Princess Cruises Ship during January-February 2020. Using mathematical modeling and time-series incidence data describing the trajectory of the outbreak among passengers and crew members, we characterize how the transmission potential varied over the course of the outbreak. Our estimate of the mean reproduction number in the confined setting reached values as high as similar to 11, which is higher than mean estimates reported from community-level transmission dynamics in China and Singapore (approximate range: 1.1-7). Our findings suggest that R-t decreased substantially compared to values during the early phase after the Japanese government implemented an enhanced quarantine control. Most recent estimates of Rt reached values largely below the epidemic threshold, indicating that a secondary outbreak of the novel coronavirus was unlikely to occur aboard the Diamond Princess Ship. (c) 2020 The Authors. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).