Advancing lake and reservoir water quality management with near-term, iterative ecological forecasting
Advancing lake and reservoir water quality management with near-term, iterative ecological forecasting
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DOI：
10.1080/20442041.2020.1816421
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发表时间：
2021-01-14
期刊：
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
Thomas, R. Quinn
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Carey, Cayelan C.;Woelmer, Whitney M.;Thomas, R. Quinn
近期，具有量化不确定性的迭代生态预测在改善湖泊和水库管理方面具有巨大潜力。例如，如果管理者收到一份表明即将到来的损害可能性很高的预测，他们今天就可以做出决定，以防止或减轻未来糟糕的水质。增加用于管理的自动化、实时淡水预报的数量需要整合跨学科的专业知识，以开发一个无缝链接数据、模型和网络基础设施的框架，以及与管理人员的合作，以确保将预报嵌入决策工作流程。这项研究的目标是推进淡水管理近期迭代生态预报的实施。我们首先提供了FLARE(预测湖泊和水库生态系统)的概述，这是我们开发的预测框架，并应用于饮用水水库以帮助水质管理，作为感兴趣的用户的潜在开源选择。我们使用FLARE开发情景预测，模拟不同的水质干预措施，为管理者决策提供信息。其次，我们分享了两年多来开发和运行FLARE的经验教训，为其他预测项目提供参考。我们特别关注如何开发、实施和维护用于主动管理的预测系统。我们的目标是打破淡水研究人员预测的障碍，目的是改善全球湖泊和水库管理。
Near-term, iterative ecological forecasts with quantified uncertainty have great potential for improving lake and reservoir management. For example, if managers received a forecast indicating a high likelihood of impending impairment, they could make decisions today to prevent or mitigate poor water quality in the future. Increasing the number of automated, real-time freshwater forecasts used for management requires integrating interdisciplinary expertise to develop a framework that seamlessly links data, models, and cyberinfrastructure, as well as collaborations with managers to ensure that forecasts are embedded into decision-making workflows. The goal of this study is to advance the implementation of near-term, iterative ecological forecasts for freshwater management. We first provide an overview of FLARE (Forecasting Lake And Reservoir Ecosystems), a forecasting framework we developed and applied to a drinking water reservoir to assist water quality management, as a potential open-source option for interested users. We used FLARE to develop scenario forecasts simulating different water quality interventions to inform manager decision-making. Second, we share lessons learned from our experience developing and running FLARE over 2 years to inform other forecasting projects. We specifically focus on how to develop, implement, and maintain a forecasting system used for active management. Our goal is to break down the barriers to forecasting for freshwater researchers, with the aim of improving lake and reservoir management globally.