Time-lag effects of global vegetation responses to climate change
Time-lag effects of global vegetation responses to climate change
复制标题
全球植被对气候变化响应的时滞效应
DOI：
10.1111/gcb.12945
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发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
Zhao X
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wu Donghai;Zhao Xiang;Liang Shunlin;Tang Bijian;Zhao Wenqian;Wu Donghai;Tang Bijian;Zhao Wenqian;Liang Shunlin;Zhou Tao;Huang Kaicheng;Zhou Tao;Huang Kaicheng;Zhou Tao;Huang Kaicheng;Zhao X
气候条件对陆地生态系统中的植被生长有显著影响。由于生态系统的空间异质性，植被对气候的响应差异很大，具有不同的空间格局和时滞效应，这是气候-植被相互作用的最重要机制。关于大尺度植被-气候相互作用的广泛研究使用同步的气象和植被指标来建立模型；然而，较少考虑时滞效应，这往往增加不确定性。在这项研究中，我们的目标是利用GIMMS3g NDVI时间序列和CRU的温度、降水和太阳辐射数据集来定量确定全球植被对不同气候因素的响应的时滞效应。本研究首先分析了全球植被对不同气候因子响应的时滞效应。然后，建立多元线性回归模型和偏相关模型，统计分析不同气候因子对植被响应的影响，确定不同植被类型的主要气候驱动因子。结果表明：(1)植被响应的时滞效应和影响植被生长的主要气候驱动因子在全球尺度上差异显著，这与植被和气候特征的多样性有关；(2)在时滞效应方面，气候因子解释了%的全球植被生长变化，比忽略时滞效应的模型相对高出11%；(3)对于全球GIMMS3g NDVI变化趋势显著的地区(1982-2008年)，主要驱动因子是温度；在区域尺度上，植被生长的变化还与人类活动和自然干扰有关。考虑时滞效应对于更好地预测和评价全球气候变化背景下的植被动态具有重要意义。
Climate conditions significantly affect vegetation growth in terrestrial ecosystems. Due to the spatial heterogeneity of ecosystems, the vegetation responses to climate vary considerably with the diverse spatial patterns and the time‐lag effects, which are the most important mechanism of climate–vegetation interactive effects. Extensive studies focused on large‐scale vegetation–climate interactions use the simultaneous meteorological and vegetation indicators to develop models; however, the time‐lag effects are less considered, which tends to increase uncertainty. In this study, we aim to quantitatively determine the time‐lag effects of global vegetation responses to different climatic factors using the GIMMS3g NDVI time series and the CRU temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation datasets. First, this study analyzed the time‐lag effects of global vegetation responses to different climatic factors. Then, a multiple linear regression model and partial correlation model were established to statistically analyze the roles of different climatic factors on vegetation responses, from which the primary climate‐driving factors for different vegetation types were determined. The results showed that (i) both the time‐lag effects of the vegetation responses and the major climate‐driving factors that significantly affect vegetation growth varied significantly at the global scale, which was related to the diverse vegetation and climate characteristics; (ii) regarding the time‐lag effects, the climatic factors explained 64% variation of the global vegetation growth, which was 11% relatively higher than the model ignoring the time‐lag effects; (iii) for the area with a significant change trend (for the period 1982–2008) in the global GIMMS3g NDVI (P< 0.05), the primary driving factor was temperature; and (iv) at the regional scale, the variation in vegetation growth was also related to human activities and natural disturbances. Considering the time‐lag effects is quite important for better predicting and evaluating the vegetation dynamics under the background of global climate change.