COVID-19 risk governance: drivers, responses and lessons to be learned
COVID-19 risk governance: drivers, responses and lessons to be learned
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DOI：
10.1080/13669877.2020.1760332
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发表时间：
2020-05-22
影响因子：
5.1
通讯作者：
Renn, Ortwin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Collins, Aengus;Florin, Marie-Valentine;Renn, Ortwin
新冠肺炎疫情既不是不可预测的，也不是不可预见的，但它在出现时就让政策制定者措手不及，导致全球对人类活动施加前所未有的限制，几乎肯定会引发二战以来的首次全球经济收缩。本文认为，这场危机爆发的关键因素，以及我们应该从中吸取的教训。白皮书首先概述了新冠肺炎传播的严重性，着重指出了决定其严重性的六个关键驱动因素：传播速度指数级、全球互联互通、医疗部门能力、更广泛的国家能力、压制措施对经济的影响，以及2008年金融危机造成的脆弱性。然后，本文件考虑了为应对五项关键挑战而采取的步骤，这五项挑战对应于IRGC风险治理框架的要素：技术评估、风险感知、评价、管理和沟通。虽然承认在这个早期阶段只能得出初步结论，但报告最后提出了一系列旨在加强对未来危机的准备的十项建议。
The COVID-19 outbreak was neither unpredictable nor unforeseen, yet it blind-sided policymakers when it emerged, leading to unprecedented global restrictions on human activity and almost certainly triggering the first global economic contraction since WWII. This paper considers the key factors in the eruption of the crisis, as well as the lessons that should be learned from it. The paper begins with an outline of COVID-19's spread, highlighting six key drivers that have determined its severity: the exponential pace of transmission, global interconnectedness, health-sector capacity, wider state capacity, the economic impact of suppression measures, and fragilities caused by the 2008 financial crisis. The paper then proceeds by considering the steps that have been taken in response to five key challenges, corresponding to elements of the IRGC risk governance framework: technical assessment, risk perception, evaluation, management and communication. While acknowledging that only tentative conclusions can be drawn at this early stage, the paper ends with a series of ten recommendations designed to increase preparedness for future crises.