Simulation of the population dynamics and social structure of the Virunga mountain gorillas
Simulation of the population dynamics and social structure of the Virunga mountain gorillas
复制标题
维龙加山地大猩猩的种群动态和社会结构模拟
DOI：
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发表时间：
2004
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
A. Robbins
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Robbins;A. Robbins
以维龙加火山地区濒危山地大猩猩（Gorilla beringei beringei）的生长速度、年龄结构和社会系统为研究对象，建立了基于agent的模型。该模型用于比较两种类型的数据：1)1971-2000年在整个地区进行的六次人口普查所测量的总体人口规模、年龄结构和社会结构的估计；2)关于出生率、死亡率、分布模式和其他生活史事件的信息，这些信息是自1967年以来由三到五个习惯研究小组测量的。在研究组数据的基础上，“基础模拟”预测的增长率高于从人口普查数据中观察到的增长率（3%对1%）。这是意料之中的，因为研究小组的增长确实快于总人口的增长。另外的模拟表明，与总体人口相比，研究小组的死亡率主要较低，而不是出生率较高。从基本模拟得到的预测一般落在平均群体规模、多雄性群体百分比和群体中女性分布的普查值范围内。然而，从研究组数据中预测的其他差异是成年雄性的比例高于观察到的比例，高估了拥有两只以上银背的多雄性群体的数量，高估了只有两到三只银背的群体的数量。造成这种差异的可能原因包括所使用的普查技术的不准确，和/或仅从少数研究小组获得的长寿物种的长期人口统计数据集的局限性。特别是，从研究小组获得的死亡率和雄性分散的估计可能不能代表整个种群。我们最终的模拟解决了这些差异，并为进一步研究个体生活史事件、群体组成、人口年龄结构和增长率模式之间的复杂关系提供了更好的基础。点。[j] .林业科学与技术，2003(3):1 - 3。©2004 Wiley‐Liss, Inc。
An agent‐based model was developed to simulate the growth rate, age structure, and social system of the endangered mountain gorillas (Gorilla beringei beringei) in the Virunga Volcanoes region. The model was used to compare two types of data: 1) estimates of the overall population size, age structure, and social structure, as measured by six censuses of the entire region that were conducted in 1971–2000; and 2) information about birth rates, mortality rates, dispersal patterns, and other life history events, as measured from three to five habituated research groups since 1967. On the basis of the research‐group data, the “base simulation” predicted a higher growth rate than that observed from the census data (3% vs. 1%). This was as expected, because the research groups have indeed grown faster than the overall population. Additional simulations suggested that the research groups primarily have a lower mortality rate, rather than higher birth rates, compared to the overall population. Predictions from the base simulation generally fell within the range of census values for the average group size, the percentage of multimale groups, and the distribution of females among groups. However, other discrepancies predicted from the research‐group data were a higher percentage of adult males than observed, an overestimation of the number of multimale groups with more than two silverbacks, and an overestimated number of groups with only two or three members. Possible causes for such discrepancies include inaccuracies in the census techniques used, and/or limitations with the long‐term demographic data set obtained from only a few research groups of a long‐lived species. In particular, estimates of mortality and male dispersal obtained from the research groups may not be representative of the entire population. Our final simulation addressed these discrepancies, and provided a better basis for further studies on the complex relationships among individual life history events, group composition, population age structure, and growth rate patterns. Am. J. Primatol. 63:201–223, 2004. © 2004 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.