Shedding Light on the Spatial Diffusion of Disasters
Shedding Light on the Spatial Diffusion of Disasters
复制标题
揭示灾害的空间扩散
DOI：
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Thomas Steinwachs
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Gabriel Felbermayr;J. Gröschl;M. Sanders;Vincent G. Schippers;Thomas Steinwachs
气候研究表明，全球变暖将导致更频繁、更极端的自然灾害。大多数灾害都是影响当地经济增长的地方性事件。因此，借助计量经济学的国家一级分析来评估其经济影响可能会导致有偏见的结果。此外，由于当地的冲击可能会将生产和消费转移到邻近地区，正确的识别变得更加复杂。本文将1992-2013年覆盖约24,000个网格单元的年度夜间光发射数据与气象和地质事件的地理编码信息进行匹配。空间计量经济学面板方法被用来考虑地点之间的相互依存关系。将光排放的变化解释为反映经济活动的变化，研究结果传达了明显的当地平均处理效应和强烈的空间溢出效应的证据，特别是对天气冲击。特别是，结果表明，自然灾害后经济活动的空间转移是一种相当局部的现象，强调了地方适应政策的重要性。此外，还发现了不同收入群体和地区之间的显著异质性。
Climate research suggests that global warming will lead to more frequent and more extreme natural disasters. Most disasters are local events with effects on local economic growth. Hence, assessing their economic impacts with the help of econometric country-level analysis may lead to biased results. Moreover, correct identification is further complicated by the possibility that local shocks shift production and consumption to neighboring locations. In this paper, annual night-time light emission data covering about 24,000 grid cells for the years 1992-2013 are matched to geocoded information on meteorological and geological events. Spatial econometric panel methods are applied to account for interdependencies between locations. Interpreting variation in light emissions as reflecting changes in economic activity, findings convey evidence for pronounced local average treatment effects and strong spatial spillovers, particularly for weather shocks. In particular, results suggest that spatial shifts of economic activity after a natural disaster are a rather local phenomenon, stressing the importance of local adaptation policies. Moreover, substantial heterogeneity across income groups and regions is identified.
影响因子：
13.7
作者：
Henderson, J. Vernon;Squires, Tim;Weil, David
通讯作者：
Weil, David
DOI：
10.1093/qje/qjs011
发表时间：
2012-05
期刊：
The quarterly journal of economics
影响因子：
--
作者：
Bleakley H;Lin J
通讯作者：
Lin J