Estimation of substitution elasticities for CGE models
Estimation of substitution elasticities for CGE models
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发表时间：
2008-04
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通讯作者：
Azusa Okagawa;Kanemi Ban
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作者：
Azusa Okagawa;Kanemi Ban
许多关于气候政策的研究都是基于可计算一般均衡模型。这些模型的模拟结果和得出的结论取决于所指定参数的大小。其中，生产要素之间的替代弹性具有重要的影响。因此，为了获得可靠的模拟结果，我们应该采用关于替代弹性的经验证据。不幸的是，在许多情况下，缺乏计量经济学分析意味着我们必须根据现有的工作来指定这些关键参数，或者从突出的建模练习中借用它们。在本研究中，我们使用经合组织国家的面板数据估计嵌套不变替代弹性（CES）生产函数，以帮助提高CGE模型对气候政策的可靠性。我们的研究结果表明，与现有模型中常用的传统值相比，与能源密集型产业的能源投入密切相关的替代弹性值较高，而其他产业的替代弹性值较低。通过对新参数的估计，我们发现传统参数对必要碳价格的估计过高了44%，并获得了二氧化碳减排成本在不同行业分布的证据。
Many studies of climate policy are based on computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling. The simulation results and conclusions reached by these models depend on the size of the parameters specified. In particular, the substitution elasticities between production factors have a major influence. Therefore, in order to obtain reliable simulation results we should employ empirical evidence gathered on the substitution elasticities. Unfortunately, in many instances, the lack of econometric analysis means we must specify these key parameters based on existing work or borrow them from prominent modeling exercises. In this study, we estimate nested constant elasticity of substitution (CES) production functions using panel data for OECD countries to help improve the reliability of CGE models for climate policy. Our results show higher values for substitution elasticities closely related to energy inputs for energy-intensive industries and lower values for other industries compared to the conventional values often used in existing models. With the new parameters estimated, we find that conventional parameters could overestimate the necessary carbon price by 44%, and obtain evidence of different distributions of CO2 emission reduction costs across industries.