The New Statistics: Why and How
The New Statistics: Why and How
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DOI：
10.1177/0956797613504966
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发表时间：
2014-01-01
影响因子：
8.2
通讯作者：
Cumming, Geoff
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cumming, Geoff
我们需要对我们进行研究的方式进行实质性的改变。首先，为了回应人们对我们发表的研究文献不完整和不可信的高度关注，我们需要新的要求来确保研究的完整性。这些措施包括尽可能预先指定研究，避免选择和其他不适当的数据分析做法，完整的报告，并鼓励复制。其次，为了应对重新认识零假设显著性检验（NHST）的严重缺陷，我们需要从依赖NHST转向估计和其他首选技术。新的统计方法参考了推荐的实践，包括基于效应量、置信区间和荟萃分析的估计。这些技术并不新，但广泛采用它们对许多研究人员来说是新的，而且非常有益。本文解释了新统计数据的重要性，并提供了使用指南。它描述了一个八步新的统计策略的研究与完整性，从制定研究问题的估计方面，没有地方NHST，旨在建立一个累积的定量学科。
We need to make substantial changes to how we conduct research. First, in response to heightened concern that our published research literature is incomplete and untrustworthy, we need new requirements to ensure research integrity. These include prespecification of studies whenever possible, avoidance of selection and other inappropriate data-analytic practices, complete reporting, and encouragement of replication. Second, in response to renewed recognition of the severe flaws of null-hypothesis significance testing (NHST), we need to shift from reliance on NHST to estimation and other preferred techniques. The new statistics refers to recommended practices, including estimation based on effect sizes, confidence intervals, and meta-analysis. The techniques are not new, but adopting them widely would be new for many researchers, as well as highly beneficial. This article explains why the new statistics are important and offers guidance for their use. It describes an eight-step new-statistics strategy for research with integrity, which starts with formulation of research questions in estimation terms, has no place for NHST, and is aimed at building a cumulative quantitative discipline.