Air quality and health co-benefits of China's national emission trading system
Air quality and health co-benefits of China's national emission trading system
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中国国家排放交易体系的空气质量和健康协同效益
DOI：
10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.114226
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发表时间：
2020-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
11.2
通讯作者：
Zhang, Xiliang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chang, Shiyan;Yang, Xi;Zhang, Xiliang
对气候政策的空气质量和健康共同惠益进行量化，可以为减缓气候变化努力的惠益提供明确的近期本地化评估。在本研究中，分析了中国国家排放交易系统实现国家自主贡献的空气质量和PM2.5相关的健康协同效益。应用跨学科综合评估模型框架，即区域排放空气质量气候健康模型。结果表明，在国家排放权交易体系下，空气质量和健康效益将得到显著改善。但成本和收益因二氧化碳排放上限的设定而异。2025年二氧化碳排放达到峰值将带来更明显的空气质量改善（与2030年二氧化碳排放达到峰值相比，省级PM2.5浓度下降3% - 12%），避免更多急性暴露的发病率，避免更多急性暴露和慢性暴露的死亡率。由于2030年国内生产总值损失更大，到2025年达到峰值的净健康效益比到2030年达到峰值的净健康效益少1000亿美元。净福利取决于健康福利的估值。如果选择更高的统计寿命值，即192万美元，那么到2025年实现二氧化碳排放峰值的净效益可以等于到2030年实现二氧化碳排放峰值的净效益。
Quantification of the air quality and health co-benefits of climate policies can provide explicit near-term localized assessment of the benefits of efforts to mitigate climate change. In the study, the air quality and PM2.5 associated health co-benefits of China's national Emission Trading System to achieve the Nationally Determined Contribution is analyzed. The interdisciplinary integrated assessment model framework, named the Regional Emissions Air quality Climate Health Model, is applied. The results showed that substantial air quality improvement and health benefit will be achieved under the national Emission Trading System. But the cost and benefits varies according to the CO2 emission cap set. To peak CO2 emissions by 2025 will bring about more obvious improvement in air quality (ranging from 3% to 12% PM2.5 concentration reduction at provincial level compared with that to peak CO2 emission by 2030), more morbidities avoided from acute exposure and more mortalities avoided from acute exposure and chronic exposure. While the net health benefit to achieve peaking by 2025 is US$ 100 billion less than that to achieve peaking by 2030 due to greater GDP loss in 2030. The net benefit is subjected to the valuation of the health benefits. If a higher Value of a Statistical Life, US$ 1.92 million, is chosen, the net benefits to achieve peak CO2 emissions by 2025 can be equal to that to achieve peak CO2 emissions by 2030.