Prediction of atrial fibrillation from at-home single-lead ECG signals without arrhythmias.

Prediction of atrial fibrillation from at-home single-lead ECG signals without arrhythmias.
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从无心律失常的家庭单导联心电信号预测心房颤动。

DOI:
10.1038/s41746-023-00966-w
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发表时间:
2023-12-12
影响因子:
15.2
通讯作者:
--
中科院分区:
医学1区
文献类型:
--
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房颤(AF)的早期识别可以降低中风、心力衰竭和其他严重心血管后果的风险。然而,即使连续监测两周,也可能无法检测到阵发性房颤。我们开发了一个模型来量化两周内近期房颤的风险,该模型基于459,889例基于补片的动态单导联心电图(改良导联II)记录的24小时无房颤心电图间隔长达14天。使用深度学习模型将ECG形态学数据与人口统计学和心律特征相结合,以预测房颤。观察1天无AF心电图记录,具有深度学习特征的模型对近期AF的预测最准确,曲线下面积AUC = 0.80(95%置信区间,CI = 0.79-0.81),与单独的人口统计学指标相比,显著提高了识别能力(AUC 0.67; CI = 0.66-0.68)。基于不同长度的无AF单导联心电图记录,我们的模型能够在两周的时间框架内预测AF事件,具有很高的识别率。该模型的应用可以通过对房颤阴性门诊监测的个体进行风险分层,进行长时间或反复监测,从而实现提高房颤诊断捕获的数字化策略,从而可能导致更快速地开始治疗。
Early identification of atrial fibrillation (AF) can reduce the risk of stroke, heart failure, and other serious cardiovascular outcomes. However, paroxysmal AF may not be detected even after a two-week continuous monitoring period. We developed a model to quantify the risk of near-term AF in a two-week period, based on AF-free ECG intervals of up to 24 h from 459,889 patch-based ambulatory single-lead ECG (modified lead II) recordings of up to 14 days. A deep learning model was used to integrate ECG morphology data with demographic and heart rhythm features toward AF prediction. Observing a 1-day AF-free ECG recording, the model with deep learning features produced the most accurate prediction of near-term AF with an area under the curve AUC = 0.80 (95% confidence interval, CI = 0.79–0.81), significantly improving discrimination compared to demographic metrics alone (AUC 0.67; CI = 0.66–0.68). Our model was able to predict incident AF over a two-week time frame with high discrimination, based on AF-free single-lead ECG recordings of various lengths. Application of the model may enable a digital strategy for improving diagnostic capture of AF by risk stratifying individuals with AF-negative ambulatory monitoring for prolonged or recurrent monitoring, potentially leading to more rapid initiation of treatment.
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