Future Climate Change and Its Impact on Runoff Generation from the Debris-Covered Inylchek Glaciers, Central Tian Shan, Kyrgyzstan
Future Climate Change and Its Impact on Runoff Generation from the Debris-Covered Inylchek Glaciers, Central Tian Shan, Kyrgyzstan
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DOI：
10.3390/w10111513
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发表时间：
2018-10
期刊：
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
W. Hagg;E. Mayr;B. Mannig;Mark Reyers;David Schubert;J. Pinto;J. Peters;T. Pieczonka;M. Juen;T. Bolch;H. Paeth;C. Mayer
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文献类型：
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作者：
W. Hagg;E. Mayr;B. Mannig;Mark Reyers;David Schubert;J. Pinto;J. Peters;T. Pieczonka;M. Juen;T. Bolch;H. Paeth;C. Mayer
位于田山中部的因尼切克冰川被大量碎屑覆盖，是塔里木流域最大的冰川系统。据推测，塔里木河近50%的流量来自冰川。因此，气候变化，进而冰川物质平衡和冰川流量的变化，对整个区域都有很大的影响。在这项研究中，提出了一个概念性的水文模型，该模型能够纳入冰川碎屑覆盖地区的流量。为了模拟过去(1970/1971-1999/2000)和未来(2070/2071-2099/2100)的冰川融化和后续径流，根据ECHAM5/MPI-OM1全球气候模式预测生成了气象输入数据。以径流和积雪信息为目标函数，采用自动校正算法对HBVLMU模型进行校正。进行了手动微调，以避免对冰川质量平衡产生不切实际的结果。模拟结果表明，在未来气候条件下，年径流总量将显著增加。敏感性分析表明，在冰川面积减少43%之前，总径流量不会减少。冰川融化是近几十年来主要的径流来源，未来几十年其贡献甚至还会增加。季节变化揭示了春季融化加剧的趋势，但要到本世纪末才能实现从冰川冰川到冰川洪水径流的转变。
The heavily debris-covered Inylchek glaciers in the central Tian Shan are the largest glacier system in the Tarim catchment. It is assumed that almost 50% of the discharge of Tarim River are provided by glaciers. For this reason, climatic changes, and thus changes in glacier mass balance and glacier discharge are of high impact for the whole region. In this study, a conceptual hydrological model able to incorporate discharge from debris-covered glacier areas is presented. To simulate glacier melt and subsequent runoff in the past (1970/1971–1999/2000) and future (2070/2071–2099/2100), meteorological input data were generated based on ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 global climate model projections. The hydrological model HBV-LMU was calibrated by an automatic calibration algorithm using runoff and snow cover information as objective functions. Manual fine-tuning was performed to avoid unrealistic results for glacier mass balance. The simulations show that annual runoff sums will increase significantly under future climate conditions. A sensitivity analysis revealed that total runoff does not decrease until the glacier area is reduced by 43%. Ice melt is the major runoff source in the recent past, and its contribution will even increase in the coming decades. Seasonal changes reveal a trend towards enhanced melt in spring, but a change from a glacial-nival to a nival-pluvial runoff regime will not be reached until the end of this century.