A Study on the Association of Socioeconomic and Physical Cofactors Contributing to Power Restoration After Hurricane Maria
A Study on the Association of Socioeconomic and Physical Cofactors Contributing to Power Restoration After Hurricane Maria
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DOI：
10.1109/access.2021.3093547
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发表时间：
2021-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Ghandehari, Masoud
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Azad, Shams;Ghandehari, Masoud
2017年9月20日，飓风玛丽亚横扫波多黎各，造成该岛电力基础设施严重受损。尽管当局做出了重大努力，但几乎花了一年时间才实现完全恢复电力。在这项研究中，我们使用星载每日夜间灯光（NTL）图像作为替代措施的电力损失和恢复。我们量化了889个县的电力损失的空间和时间范围以及8个多月来逐步恢复的趋势，并计算了上述列表地区的停电天数。我们制定了一个准泊松回归模型，以确定从物理和社会经济领域的功能与电力恢复工作的关联。根据该模型，飓风登陆点附近地区的恢复时间延长，距离登陆点每增加50公里，停电天数就减少30%（95% CI = 26% - 33%）。道路连通性是恢复工作的一个主要问题，与高速公路直接连接的地区恢复得更快，停电天数减少7%（95% CI = 1% - 13%）。中度滑坡区需要5.5%（95%CI = 1%~ 10%）的恢复天数，重度滑坡区需要11.4%（95%CI = 2%~ 21%）的恢复天数。经济上处于不利地位的地区因长期停电而遭受更多损失。贫困线以下人口每增加10%，恢复时间就增加2%（95% CI = 0.3% - 2.8%）。
The electric power infrastructure in Puerto Rico suffered substantial damage as Hurricane Maria crossed the island on September 20, 2017. Despite significant efforts made by authorities, it took almost a year to achieve near-complete power recovery. In this study, we used spaceborne daily nighttime lights (NTL) imagery as a surrogate measure of power loss and restoration. We quantified the spatial and temporal extent of loss of electric power and trends in gradual recovery at the 889 county subdivisions for over eight months and computed days without service at the above tabulation areas. We formulated a Quasi-Poisson regression model to identify the association of the features from physical and socioeconomic domains with the power recovery effort. According to the model, the recovery time extended for areas closer to the landfall location of the hurricane, with every 50-kilometer increase in distance from the landfall corresponding to 30% fewer days without power (95% CI = 26% - 33%). Road connectivity was a major issue for the restoration effort, areas having a direct connection with hi-speed roads recovered more quickly with 7% fewer outage days (95% CI = 1% - 13%). The areas which were affected by moderate landslide needed 5.5% (95% CI = 1% - 10%), and high landslide areas needed 11.4% (95% CI = 2% - 21%) more days to recover. Financially disadvantaged areas suffered more from the extended outage. For every 10% increase in population below the poverty line, there was a 2% increase in recovery time (95% CI = 0.3% - 2.8%).