Can We Predict Politics? Toward What End?
Can We Predict Politics? Toward What End?
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我们能预测政治吗？
DOI：
10.1093/jogss/ogv002
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发表时间：
2016
影响因子：
1.6
通讯作者：
M. Ward
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Ward
1901年，在希腊的安提基特拉岛附近，一艘船驶进海湾等待风暴结束。风暴过后，潜水员发现了一艘古代沉船，里面有许多珍贵的文物，包括珠宝、硬币、雕像和陶器。一件是一堆被腐蚀的青铜和木头。所有的东西都被运到雅典的国家考古博物馆。1902年，一位考古学家注意到这个被腐蚀的肿块里似乎有齿轮。他认为这是某种占星钟，但考虑到与它一起发现的其他物品的年代，它似乎太先进了，最初可以追溯到公元前150年左右，它被忽视了50年。几年后，它被X射线和γ射线照射，产生了82个不同的装置碎片的图像。
到2014年底，已经确定该机制可以追溯到公元前250年左右。许多人认为它是第一台计算机（Freeth et al. 2006）。该装置能够计算和显示天体周期，包括月相和太阳历。也许更重要的是，它能够预测日食--当时被视为预兆。事实上，许多人认为安提基特拉机制是一种预兆预测装置，它所做的所有其他预测都只是其真正目的的副产品。
这种机制的主要目的是产生准确的预测，无论谁使用它，都可以在没有希巴乔天文学的详细理论知识的情况下这样做，因为它适用于椭圆轨道的不规则相位。因此，这纯粹是一种预测，并不能“解释”什么。与此同时，它体现了详细的工程，这是基于一个理论机制，提供了精致的细节. mw 160 {at}duke.edu
In 1901, off the Greek island of Antikythera, a ship pulled into a bay to wait out a storm. After the storm was over, its divers discovered an ancient shipwreck containing many valuable antiquities, including jewelry, coins, statues, and pottery. One item was a lump of corroded bronze and wood. Everything was carted off to the National Museum of Archeology in Athens. In 1902, an archeologist noticed that the corroded lump had what appeared to be gears in it. He assumed that it was some sort of astrological clock, but it appeared to be too far advanced given the dating of the other items it was found with, which were initially dated to about 150 BCE, and it was ignored for five decades. Several years later, it was X and γ rayed, resulting in images of eighty-two different fragments of the device.
By the end of 2014, it had been established that the mechanism dated back further, to about 250 BCE. Many consider it to be the first computing machine (Freeth et al. 2006). This device was able to calculate and display celestial cycles, including phases of the moon, as well as a solar calendar. Perhaps more importantly, it was able to predict eclipses—seen at the time as omens. In fact, many think of the Antikythera Mechanism as an omen prediction device , with all the other predictions it makes simply by-products of its true purpose.
The main purpose of this mechanism was to generate accurate predictions, and whoever used it could do so without a detailed theoretical knowledge of Hipparchosian astronomy as applied to irregular phases of ellipsoid orbits. Thus, it was pure prediction and did not “explain” anything. At the same time, it embodied detailed engineering that was based on a theoretical mechanism that provided exquisite details of … mw160{at}duke.edu