Reservoir operation based on evolutionary algorithms and multi-criteria decision-making under climate change and uncertainty
Reservoir operation based on evolutionary algorithms and multi-criteria decision-making under climate change and uncertainty
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DOI：
10.2166/hydro.2018.094
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发表时间：
2018-03-01
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
El-Shafie, Ahmed
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ehteram, Mohammad;Mousavi, Sayed Farhad;El-Shafie, Ahmed
本研究调查了基准期（1981-2000年）和未来期（2011-2030年）气候变化下的水库调度。使用了基于A2情景的不同气候变化模型，在其他气候变化模型中，考虑到不确定性的HAD-CM 3模型被认为是最好的模型。以伊朗的Dez盆地为例，气候变化模型预测，未来一段时期的气温将从1.16摄氏度上升到2.5摄氏度，降水量将减少。此外，流域径流量将减少，下游消费的灌溉需求将增加未来一段时间。一个混合框架（优化气候变化）用于水库调度和蝙蝠算法用于灌溉赤字最小化。选择遗传算法和粒子群算法与蝙蝠算法进行比较。可靠性，弹性和脆弱性指数，基于多准则模型，用于选择水库调度的基本方法。结果表明，基于所有进化算法，未来一段时间内的放水量均小于基准期的放水量，且具有高可靠性指标和低脆弱性指标的蝙蝠算法在其他进化算法中表现较好。
This study investigated reservoir operation under climate change for a base period (1981-2000) and future period (2011-2030). Different climate change models, based on A2 scenario, were used and the HAD-CM3 model, considering uncertainty, among other climate change models was found to be the best model. For the Dez basin in Iran, considered as a case study, the climate change models predicted increasing temperature from 1.16 to 2.5 degrees C and decreasing precipitation for the future period. Also, runoff volume for the basin would decrease and irrigation demand for the downstream consumption would increase for the future period. A hybrid framework (optimization-climate change) was used for reservoir operation and the bat algorithm was used for minimization of irrigation deficit. A genetic algorithm and a particle swarm algorithm were selected for comparison with the bat algorithm. The reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability indices, based on a multi-criteria model, were used to select the base method for reservoir operation. Results showed the volume of water to be released for the future period, based on all evolutionary algorithms used, was less than for the base period, and the bat algorithm with high-reliability index and low vulnerability index performed better among other evolutionary algorithms.