Exploration of the ranges of the global potential of biomass for energy
Exploration of the ranges of the global potential of biomass for energy
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DOI：
10.1016/s0961-9534(02)00191-5
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发表时间：
2003-01-01
影响因子：
6
通讯作者：
Turkenburg, W
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hoogwijk, M;Faaija, A;Turkenburg, W
这项研究探讨了未来世界生物质能源的潜力范围。重点放在影响用于能源目的的潜在生物质可用性的因素上，而不是给出确切的数字。确定了六类生物质能源资源：剩余耕地上的能源作物、退化土地上的能源作物、农业残留物、森林残留物、动物粪便和有机废物。此外，还特别注意到生物质材料的竞争性使用。该分析利用了对所有不同类别的各种现有研究。这项研究的主要结论是，全球初级生物量潜力的范围（约50年）非常广泛，量化为33-1135 EJy（-1）。来自剩余农业用地的能源作物具有最大的潜在贡献（0-988 EJy（-1））。决定生物量能源供应的关键因素是：（1）未来对粮食的需求，由人口增长和未来饮食决定;（2）未来50年内世界范围内可以采用的粮食生产系统类型;（3）森林和能源作物的生产力;（4）粮食生产的效率;（5）粮食生产的效率;（6）粮食生产的效率;（7）粮食生产的效率;（8）粮食生产的效率。（增加）使用生物材料;（5）退化土地的可利用性;（6）竞争性土地利用类型，例如用于重新造林的剩余农业用地，因此，生物量能源可大规模利用并不是“既定的”。此外，它表明，旨在从生物质能源供应的政策应考虑到粮食生产系统的发展等因素，在全面的发展计划。(C)2003爱思唯尔科技有限公司版权所有。
This study explores the range of future world potential of biomass for energy. The focus has been put on the factors that influence the potential biomass availability for energy purposes rather than give exact numbers. Six biomass resource categories for energy are identified: energy crops on surplus cropland, energy crops on degraded land, agricultural residues, forest residues, animal manure and organic wastes. Furthermore, specific attention is paid to the competing biomass use for material. The analysis makes use of a wide variety of existing studies on all separate categories. The main conclusion of the study is that the range of the global potential of primary biomass (in about 50 years) is very broad quantified at 33-1135 EJy(-1). Energy crops from surplus agricultural land have the largest potential contribution (0-988 EJy(-1)). Crucial factors determining biomass availability for energy are: (1) The future demand for food, determined by the population growth and the future diet; (2) The type of food production systems that can be adopted world-wide over the next 50 years; (3) Productivity of forest and energy crops; (4) The (increased) use of bio-materials; (5) Availability of degraded land, (6) Competing land use types, e.g. surplus agricultural land used for reforestation.It is therefore not "a given" that biomass for energy can become available at a large-scale. Furthermore, it is shown that policies aiming for the energy supply from biomass should take the factors like food production system developments into account in comprehensive development schemes. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.