Is Catchment Classification Possible by Means of Multiple Model Structures? A Case Study Based on 99 Catchments in Germany
Is Catchment Classification Possible by Means of Multiple Model Structures? A Case Study Based on 99 Catchments in Germany
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DOI：
10.3390/hydrology3020022
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发表时间：
2016-06
期刊：
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
R. Ley;H. Hellebrand;M. Casper;F. Fenicia
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Ley;H. Hellebrand;M. Casper;F. Fenicia
本研究探讨了一组模型的性能如何取决于这些模型所应用的集水区。它检查（一）是否有可能确定一个单一的最佳模型，为每个集水区，或是否结果是由equifinality占主导地位;和（二）是否可以与一组预测模型的性能排名，如气候和集水区的特点。为了探索这些问题，我们应用了12个模型结构，99集水区在德国，大小从10平方公里到1826平方公里。我们研究了模型性能的径流预测，基于各种指数。我们的研究结果表明，对于一些集水区，许多结构同样表现良好，而对于其他集水区，一个单一的结构明显优于其他。我们无法确定相对模型性能和集水特征之间的明确关系。这一结果使我们得出结论，考虑的空间尺度，这是很难根据一个集总的概念模型的选择基于先验评估，我们建议后验选择模型比较的基础上。
This study investigates how the performance of a set of models depends on the catchments to which these models are applied. It examines (i) whether it is possible to identify a single best model for each of the catchments, or whether results are dominated by equifinality; and (ii) whether the ranking of model performance can be related to a set of predictors, such as climate and catchment characteristics. In order to explore these questions, we applied 12 model structures to 99 catchments in Germany, ranging in size from 10 km2 to 1826 km2. We examined model performance in terms of streamflow predictions, based on various indices. Our results indicate that for some catchments many structures perform equally well, whereas for other catchments a single structure clearly outperforms the others. We could not identify clear relationships between relative model performance and catchment characteristics. This result led us to conclude that for the spatial scales considered, it is difficult to base the selection of a lumped conceptual model based on a priori assessment, and we recommend a posteriori selection based on model comparisons.