Rescinding community mitigation strategies in an influenza pandemic
Rescinding community mitigation strategies in an influenza pandemic
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DOI：
10.3201/eid1403.070673
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发表时间：
2008-03-01
影响因子：
11.8
通讯作者：
Glass, Robert J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Davey, Victoria J.;Glass, Robert J.
使用一个网络化的、基于代理的社区计算模型，我们评估了在流感大流行后取消两个社区缓解策略的阈值。当疾病发病率在7天内降至2个大流行严重程度的0、1、2或3例的阈值时，我们结束了儿童隔离或全社区隔离。未减轻的流行病或在疫情持续期间的战略持续作为控制情景。每7天取消0例的阈值与关于感染率和发病率的持续策略相当，但在轻度或重度大流行中，需要策略的天数减少了6%至32%。如果病例复发，则在预先确定的10个病例触发点恢复战略，并阻止疫情复发。策略在高依从性的情况下使用并与严格的撤销阈值相结合时最有效。在不增加发病率的情况下，减少了为控制流感大流行而实施战略的必要性。
Using a networked, agent-based computational model of a stylized community, we evaluated thresholds for rescinding 2 community mitigation strategies after an influenza pandemic. We ended child sequestering or all-community sequestering when illness incidence waned to thresholds of 0, 1, 2, or 3 cases in 7 days in 2 levels of pandemic severity. An unmitigated epidemic or strategy continuation for the epidemic duration served as control scenarios. The 0-case per 7-day rescinding threshold was comparable to the continuation strategy on infection and illness rates but reduced the number of days strategies would be needed by 6% to 32% in mild or severe pandemics. If cases recurred, strategies were resumed at a predefined 10-case trigger, and epidemic recurrence was thwarted. Strategies were most effective when used with high compliance and when combined with stringent rescinding thresholds. The need for strategies implemented for control of an influenza pandemic was reduced, without increasing illness rates.