Current warming will reduce yields unless maize breeding and seed systems adapt immediately
Current warming will reduce yields unless maize breeding and seed systems adapt immediately
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate3061
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发表时间：
2016-10-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Das, B.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Challinor, A. J.;Koehler, A. -K.;Das, B.
开发更适合新气候条件的作物品种对未来的粮食生产至关重要（1，2）。平均温度的升高加速作物发育，导致作物持续时间缩短，积累生物量和产量的时间减少（3，4）。玉米新品种的培育、交付和采用（BDA）过程可能长达30年。在这里，我们第一次评估变暖的影响，在BDA过程中，使用五个偏差校正的全球气候模型和四个代表性的浓度途径与现实的情景下，玉米BDA时间在非洲。结果表明，玉米BDA周期开始和结束之间的预计温差导致作物持续时间较短，超出了当前的变化。适应和减缓都可以减少持续时间损失。特别是，气候预测有可能为育种提供目标高温。虽然减少BDA时间的选项高度依赖于环境，但共同的思路包括在整个BDA周期中改进跨区域数据的记录和共享，简化监管和能力建设。最后，我们表明，这些结果对整个热带地区的玉米有影响，预计在那里会有类似的持续时间缩短。
The development of crop varieties that are better suited to new climatic conditions is vital for future food production(1,2). Increases in mean temperature accelerate crop development, resulting in shorter crop durations and reduced time to accumulate biomass and yield(3,4). The process of breeding, deliv ery and adoption (BDA) of new maize varieties can take up to 30 years. Here, we assess for the first time the implications of warming during the BDA process by using five bias-corrected global climate models and four representative concentration pathways with realistic scenarios of maize BDA times in Africa. The results show that the projected difference in temperature between the start and end of the maize BDA cycle results in shorter crop durations that are outside current variability. Both adaptation and mitigation can reduce duration loss. In particular, climate projections have the potential to provide target elevated temperatures for breeding. Whilst options for reducing BDA time are highly context dependent, common threads include improved recording and sharing of data across regions for the whole BDA cycle, streamlining of regulation, and capacity building. Finally, we show that the results have implications for maize across the tropics, where similar shortening of duration is projected.