Family violence and football: the effect of unexpected emotional cues on violent behavior.
Family violence and football: the effect of unexpected emotional cues on violent behavior.
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DOI：
10.1093/qje/qjr001
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Dahl GB
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Card D;Dahl GB
我们研究家庭暴力与当地职业足球队输赢相关的情绪线索之间的联系。我们假设暴力风险受到围绕合理预期参考点的游戏结果的“得失”效用的影响。我们的实证分析使用了职业足球赛季期间周日暴力事件的警方报告。控制了赛前的分差和当地观众的规模后，我们发现，意外失利（当主队预计以 4 分或更多分获胜时的失败）会导致男性针对妻子和女友的家庭暴力发生率增加 10%。相比之下，当比赛预计接近时，损失的影响很小且不显着。爆冷获胜（当主队预计会输时）对暴力也几乎没有影响，这与得失效用函数的不对称性一致。爆冷失利后暴力事件的增加主要集中在比赛接近尾声的一段狭窄的时间窗口内，并且在更重要的比赛中暴力事件的增加会更大。我们没有发现根据半场得分更新参考点的证据。
We study the link between family violence and the emotional cues associated with wins and losses by local professional football teams. We hypothesize that the risk of violence is affected by the ‘gain-loss’ utility of game outcomes around a rationally expected reference point. Our empirical analysis uses police reports of violent incidents on Sundays during the professional football season. Controlling for the pre-game point spread and the size of the local viewing audience, we find that upset losses (defeats when the home team was predicted to win by 4 or more points) lead to a 10 percent increase in the rate of at-home violence by men against their wives and girlfriends. In contrast, losses when the game was expected to be close have small and insignificant effects. Upset wins (when the home team was predicted to lose) also have little impact on violence, consistent with asymmetry in the gain-loss utility function. The rise in violence after an upset loss is concentrated in a narrow time window near the end of the game, and is larger for more important games. We find no evidence for reference point updating based on the halftime score.