Climate changes and their impacts on water resources in the arid regions: a case study of the Tarim River basin, China
Climate changes and their impacts on water resources in the arid regions: a case study of the Tarim River basin, China
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DOI：
10.1007/s00477-009-0324-0
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发表时间：
2010-03
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Qiang Zhang;Chong-yu Xu;H. Tao;T. Jiang;Y. Chen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Qiang Zhang;Chong-yu Xu;H. Tao;T. Jiang;Y. Chen
为揭示塔里木河流域水资源的变化规律，对塔里木河流域5个水文站的径流序列进行了分析。此外，还利用23个气象站1960-2005年逐日降水和气温资料，分析了气候变化对水资源的影响。结果表明：（1）研究区气温呈上升趋势，但仅秋季气温有显著上升趋势;（2）降水变化呈现不同的特征。一般来说，可以检测到降水量增加。但只有天山山区的降水量有显著的增加趋势。塔里木河流域各主要河流年径流量除阿克苏河年径流量呈显著增加趋势外，其余各河流年径流量变化趋势均不显著。由于天山山区的地貌特征，该区降水量呈明显的增加趋势，这反过来又导致阿克苏河径流量增加。由于塔里木河流域河流径流的主要来源是降水和冰川融化，降水增加和冰川加速融化都有引起径流增加的可能。这些研究成果对我国干旱区流域水资源管理具有一定的实用价值和科学价值。
Streamflow series of five hydrological stations were analyzed with aim to indicate variability of water resources in the Tarim River basin. Besides, impacts of climate changes on water resources were investigated by analyzing daily precipitation and temperature data of 23 meteorological stations covering 1960–2005. Some interesting and important results were obtained: (1) the study region is characterized by increasing temperature, however, only temperature in autumn is in significant increasing trend; (2) precipitation changes present different properties. Generally, increasing precipitation can be detected. However, only the precipitation in the Tienshan mountain area is in significant increasing trend. Annual streamflow of major rivers of the Tarim River basin are not in significant trends, except that of the Akesu River which is in significantly increasing trend. Due to the geomorphologic properties of the Tienshan mountain area, precipitation in this area demonstrates significant increasing trend and which in turn leads to increasing streamflow of the Akesu River. Due to the fact that the sources of streamflow of the rivers in the Tarim River basin are precipitation and melting glacial, both increasing precipitation and accelerating melting ice has the potential to cause increasing streamflow. These results are of practical and scientific merits in basin-scale water resource management in the arid regions in China under the changing environment.