Observed variability and trends in extreme temperature indices and rice–wheat productivity over two districts of Bihar, India—a case study
Observed variability and trends in extreme temperature indices and rice–wheat productivity over two districts of Bihar, India—a case study
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印度比哈尔邦两个地区极端温度指数和稻麦生产力的观测变化和趋势——案例研究
DOI：
10.1007/s00704-012-0665-3
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发表时间：
2012
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
N. Priya
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
N. Subash;Sadhna Singh;N. Priya
本文的目的是分析印度比哈尔邦（印度恒河流域中部的一部分）两个地区极端温度指数的趋势和变化及其对稻麦生产力的影响。采用曼-肯德尔非参数检验来检测趋势，并确定森斜率来量化此类趋势的大小。我们分析了 10 个月度和季节性极端温度指数。利用相关分析确定极端温度指数对稻麦生产力的影响。就巴特那而言，如果9月份的凉爽天数≥10天，由于有足够的时间来充实谷物，水稻产量将会提高。然而，除六月外的所有月份中较高的温暖天数都会影响生产力。 9月最低气温最大值与水稻生产力呈显着负相关。 9月份凉爽日数与水稻生产力呈极显着正相关，而同月温暖日数与水稻生产力呈极显着负相关。就Samastipur而言，2月份小麦产量与最高气温（TXx）最大值之间存在负相关，但不具有统计显着性。较高的温度可能会影响籽粒重量，从而影响产量。由此可见，2 月份 TXx ≥29.2°C 的临界值将对小麦作物产生危害。凉爽夜晚的数量与小麦生产力的显着正相关也支持了上述关系。水稻和小麦生长月份极端温度指数的临界值提供了评估巴特那和萨马斯蒂普尔地区稻麦生产力对温度的脆弱性的指标，需要制定适应性策略并开发适合该地区的热不敏感稻麦高产品种，以在预计的气候变化情况下维持稻麦生产力。
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the trends and variability in extreme temperature indices and its impact on rice–wheat productivity over two districts of Bihar, India, which is part of the middle Indo-Gangetic Basin. Mann–Kendall non-parametric test was employed for detection of trend and Sen slope was determined to quantify the magnitude of such trends. We have analyzed 10 extreme temperature indices for monthly and seasonally. The influence of extreme temperature indices on rice–wheat productivity was determined using correlation analysis. As far as Patna is concerned, if the number of cool days during September ≥10, the rice productivity will increase due to the availability of sufficient duration to fill up the grain. However, higher warm days during all the months except June will affect the productivity. A significant negative correlation was noticed between maximum value of minimum temperature during September and rice productivity. Highly significant positive correlation was noticed between number of cool days during September with rice productivity while it was highly significant negative correlation in the case of number of warm days during the same month. As far as Samastipur is concerned, a negative correlation was noticed between wheat productivity and maximum value of maximum temperature (TXx) during February, but not statistically significant. The higher temperature may affect the kernel weight and thereby yield. It is seen that a critical value of TXx ≥29.2 °C will be harmful to wheat crop during February. A significant positive correlation of number of cool nights with wheat productivity also supports the above relationship. The critical values of extreme temperature indices during rice and wheat growing months provide an indicator to assess the vulnerability of rice–wheat productivity to temperature for Patna and Samastipur districts and there is a need to prepare an adaptive strategy and also develop thermo-insensitive rice–wheat high yielding varieties suitable for this region to sustain rice–wheat productivity under projected climate change situation.