Four scenarios of the energy transition: Drivers, consequences, and implications for geopolitics
Four scenarios of the energy transition: Drivers, consequences, and implications for geopolitics
复制标题
能源转型的四种情景：驱动因素、后果以及对地缘政治的影响
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Kirsten Westphal
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Bazilian;M. Bradshaw;J. Gabriel;A. Goldthau;Kirsten Westphal
这篇评论文章提供了对正在进行的全球能源转型的地缘政治的见解。在这样做的过程中，它在很大程度上借鉴了2018年底在柏林举行的一次研讨会，以及随后发表在《自然》杂志上的一篇论文。本文提出了四种方案。首先，基于应对气候变化的多边方式的假设，“绿色大协议”为未来提供了一个积极的故事。其次，《肮脏的民族主义》探讨了各国选择转向国内，追求短期、保护主义和利己主义议程的后果。第三，“技术突破”展示了技术飞跃如何导致大国竞争和明显的地区性能源集团。最后，《蒙混过关》调查了反映一切照旧的能源转型的结果。通过对不同情景的比较和对比，文章突出了不同情景的潜在赢家和输家，以及地缘政治后果。它还勾勒出对政策、理论和情景思维的更广泛的影响。
This opinion article offers insights into the geopolitics of the ongoing global energy transition. In doing so, it draws heavily on a workshop in Berlin in late 2018, and a subsequent paper in the journal Nature. Four scenarios are presented. First, the “Big Green Deal” offers a positive story of the future, under the assumption that there will be a multilateral approach to tackling climate change. Second, “Dirty Nationalism” explores the fallout of nations choosing to turn inward and pursue a short‐term, protectionist, and self‐interested agenda. Third, “Technology Breakthrough” illustrates how a technological leap forward could lead to a great power rivalry and distinct regional energy blocs. Finally, “Muddling On” investigates the outcome of an energy transition that reflect business as usual. By comparing and contrasting the different scenarios, the article highlights the potential winners and losers of the different scenarios, and the geopolitical consequences. It also sketches the implications for policy, theory, and scenario thinking more broadly.