Global average climate forcing and temperature response since 1750
Global average climate forcing and temperature response since 1750
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1750年以来的全球平均气候强迫和温度响应
DOI：
10.1002/(sici)1097-0088(19980330)18:4
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发表时间：
1998
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
P. Rowntree
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
P. Rowntree
对1750年以来被认为对气候变化起重要作用的主要辐射强迫因素进行了估计。对这些的分析强调了直到二十世纪初生物圈二氧化碳释放和甲烷增加的作用。直到二十世纪中叶，化石燃料燃烧一直是次要的，化石燃料二氧化碳的影响相对较小，被来自同一来源的硫酸盐气溶胶抵消。结果表明，通过合理估计温室气体、人为和火山气溶胶的贡献，一个简单的盒扩散气候模式模拟了从仪器数据和冰川数据估计的全球气候变化观测记录的许多特征。实现这一点既不包括这一时期太阳强度的变化，也不包括内部变化--最近关于这一主题的讨论表明，这是必要的--但包括火山气溶胶的强迫，而这些研究忽视了这一点。考虑了火山气溶胶强迫的三种不同估计；尽管火山气溶胶大大改善了模型与观测的拟合，但验证并未显示任何一种估计明显优于任何一种估计。温度记录与三维模式得到的气候敏感度一致。©1998英国皇家气象学会
Estimates are made for the period since 1750 of the major radiative forcing factors thought to be important in climate change. Analysis of these emphasizes the role of biospheric CO2 release and increasing methane up to the early twentieth century. Fossil fuel burning had a minor role until the mid-twentieth century, with the relatively small effects of fossil fuel CO2 being cancelled by sulphate aerosols from the same source. It is shown that, by using reasonable estimates of the contributions by greenhouse gases and anthropogenic and volcanic aerosols, a simple box-diffusion climate model simulates many features of the observed record of global climate change as estimated from both instrumental and glacier data. This is achieved without including either variations in solar intensity over this period or internal variability—which recent discussions of the topic have suggested are needed—but including forcing by volcanic aerosols, which these studies neglected. Three different estimates of forcing by volcanic aerosols are considered; although the volcanic aerosols substantially improve the model's fit to the observations, the validation does not show any one estimate to be clearly superior. The temperature record is shown to be consistent with the climate sensitivity obtained with three-dimensional models. © 1998 Royal Meteorological Society