A model for China's energy requirements and CO2 emissions analysis
A model for China's energy requirements and CO2 emissions analysis
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DOI：
10.1016/j.envsoft.2005.12.007
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发表时间：
2007-03
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Ying Fan;Qiao-Mei Liang;Yi-Ming Wei;N. Okada
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ying Fan;Qiao-Mei Liang;Yi-Ming Wei;N. Okada
本文介绍了中国能源需求和二氧化碳排放分析系统（CErCmA）的建模模型和相应的软件。CErCmA基于投入产出方法，设计用于能源需求和二氧化碳排放情景分析，以支持政策制定者、规划者和其他人员对中国的能源需求和环境保护进行战略规划。在系统中，能源消费的主要驱动因素是技术、人口、经济和城市化；情景是基于代表不同增长路径的主要驱动力。采用投入产出法计算各情景下的能源需求和二氧化碳排放量。CErCmA的发展历程以一个案例为例：中国2010年和2020年的能源需求和二氧化碳排放量是基于1997年的投入产出表计算的。研究结果表明，中国的能源需求和相关的二氧化碳排放量将呈指数级增长，未来20年中国将难以保持低人均排放的优势。中国的制造业和交通运输业应该是实施能效改进的两个主要部门。本文还提出了改进该模型的方法。
This paper introduces a model and corresponding software for modeling China's Energy Requirements and the CO2Emissions Analysis System (CErCmA). Based on the input–output approach, CErCmA was designed for scenario analysis of energy requirements and CO2emissions to support policymakers, planners and others strategically plan for energy demands and environmental protection in China. In the system, major drivers of energy consumption are identified as technology, population, economy and urbanization; scenarios are based on the major driving forces that represent various growth paths. The input–output approach is employed to compute energy requirements and CO2emissions under each scenario. The development of CErCmA is described in a case study: China's energy requirements and CO2emissions in 2010 and 2020 are computed based on the input–output table of 1997. The results show that China's energy needs and related CO2emissions will grow exponentially even with many energy efficiency improvements, and that it will be hard for China to maintain its advantage of low per capita emissions in the next 20 years. China's manufacturing and transportation sectors should be the two major sectors to implement energy efficiency improvements. Options for improving this model are also presented in this paper.