Revisiting the climate driver and inhibitor mechanisms of international migration
Revisiting the climate driver and inhibitor mechanisms of international migration
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重新审视国际移民的气候驱动因素和抑制机制
DOI：
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发表时间：
2020
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通讯作者：
Dennis Wesselbaum
中科院分区：
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作者：
Dennis Wesselbaum
摘要在这篇文章中，我们增加了关于国际移民走出非洲的驱动力的文献。我们特别关注气候变量的直接影响：温度、降雨量和与天气有关的灾害。我们利用从1980年到2015年从所有非洲国家流向16个经合组织国家的移民流，重新审视气候是移民的驱动因素还是抑制因素。我们的发现表明，气候可能是迁徙的驱动因素，也可能是迁徙的抑制因素，具体取决于温度冲击的大小。结果表明，温度对迁移具有非线性影响。我们观察到目的地温度呈U型关系，而起点温度呈倒U型关系。我们还发现，农业途径在数量上确实很重要：对农业依赖程度更高的国家经历了更大的移民流动。最后，与天气有关的灾害对国际移民也有重大影响。
ABSTRACT In this paper, we add to the literature on the driving forces of international migration out of Africa. We particularly focus on the direct effect of climate variables: temperature, rainfall, and weather-related disaster. We revisit the question whether climate is a driver or inhibitor of migration using migration flows out of all African countries from 1980 to 2015 into 16 OECD countries. Our findings show that climate can be a driver and an inhibitor of migration depending on the size of the temperature shock. We show that temperature has non-linear effects on migration. We observe a U-shaped relationship for temperature at destination and an inverted U-shaped relationship at origin. We also find that the agricultural pathway does quantitatively matter: countries relying more heavily on agriculture experience larger migration flows. Finally, weather-related disaster also have a significant effect on international migration.