Climatological characteristics and seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclones making landfall along the South China coast
Climatological characteristics and seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclones making landfall along the South China coast
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DOI：
10.1175//2554.1
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发表时间：
2003-08-01
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Chan, JCL
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Liu, KS;Chan, JCL
本文介绍了在中国华南沿海登陆的热带气旋的重要气候特征，并提出了一种预测此类热带气旋年数量的统计方案。发现该数量有很大变化，这主要是由于厄尔尼诺 - 南方涛动（ENSO）现象的发生与否。强烈的厄尔尼诺事件会减少登陆热带气旋的数量，而在拉尼娜事件相关的年份则有更多热带气旋倾向于登陆。这种变化在某些季节更为显著。在厄尔尼诺（拉尼娜）年，晚季（10月 - 11月）的活动通常受到抑制（增强），而在拉尼娜（厄尔尼诺）事件成熟阶段之后的早季（5月和6月），热带气旋袭击华南沿海的几率显著增加（减少）。这些异常活动显然与ENSO引起的中低层大尺度环流异常有关。基于诸如尼诺3.4区海表温度异常和赤道南方涛动指数等与ENSO相关的指标，利用投影寻踪回归技术开发了一种在4月1日前对这类登陆热带气旋年数量进行统计预测的方案。该方案相对于气候平均值在均方根误差方面有40%的技巧提升。2001年所做的实时预测给出了合理的结果。
This paper presents the important climatological features of the tropical cyclones making landfall along the South China coast and proposes a statistical scheme for the prediction of the annual number of such tropical cyclones. This number is found to have a large variation, which is mainly due to the occurrence or nonoccurrence of the El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. A strong El Nino event is found to reduce the number of landfalling tropical cyclones whereas more tropical cyclones tend to make landfall in years associated with La Nina events. Such variations are more prominent in some seasons. The late season ( October - November) activity is generally suppressed ( enhanced) in El Nino ( La Nina) years whereas the chance of a tropical cyclone striking the South China coast increases ( decreases) significantly in the early season ( May and June) after the mature phase of a La Nina ( El Nino) event. These anomalous activities are apparently linked to the ENSO-induced anomalies in the low- and midlevel large-scale circulation.Based on the ENSO-related indices such as the Nino-3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly and the equatorial Southern Oscillation index, a statistical prediction scheme for the annual number of such landfalling tropical cyclones by 1 April is developed using the projection - pursuit regression technique. This scheme provides a 40% skill improvement in root-mean-square error with respect to climatology. A real-time prediction made in 2001 gave reasonable results.