An Evaluation of WRF Rainfall Forecasts in Taiwan during Three Mei-Yu Seasons from 2008 to 2010
An Evaluation of WRF Rainfall Forecasts in Taiwan during Three Mei-Yu Seasons from 2008 to 2010
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DOI：
10.1175/waf-d-16-0190.1
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发表时间：
2017-06
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Chung‐Chieh Wang;F. Chien;Sahana Paul;Dong In Lee;Chuang Yu Pi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Chung‐Chieh Wang;F. Chien;Sahana Paul;Dong In Lee;Chuang Yu Pi
摘要利用2008 - 2010年台湾三个梅雨季节的400多个雨量站的观测资料，对天气研究与预报模式（WRF）在台湾地区定量降水预报（QPF）中的表现进行了评估。的QPF，跨越12-36小时的范围内运行的两个嵌套域的网格大小为15和5公里，进行了验证。视觉和基于几何的验证方法都用于提供互补的结果。更强调的是梅雨季节内变化和梅雨降水的日周期，因为这些方面以前没有得到很好的探讨。虽然分类统计表明技能水平与过去的研究相比，该模型表现更好的锋面降雨在5月比季风降雨在6月。这两个WRF域被发现捕捉到的整体降雨量，其一般的空间格局，从5月到6月的降雨量增加，和基本的日周期在合理的范围内。然而，这两个领域都表现出持续的向东的趋势。
AbstractThe performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model in quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) across Taiwan during three mei-yu seasons between 2008 and 2010 is evaluated using observations from about 400 rain gauges. The QPFs, spanning a range of 12–36 h and run for two nested domains at grid sizes of 15 and 5 km, are verified. Both visual and statistical-based verification methods are used to provide complementary results. More emphasis is placed on intraseasonal variation and the diurnal cycle of mei-yu rainfall, as these aspects have been less well explored previously. While the categorical statistics indicate skill levels comparable to past studies, the model performs better for frontal rainfall in May than monsoon rainfall in June. The two WRF domains are found to capture the overall rainfall amount, its general spatial pattern, the increased rain from May to June, and the basic diurnal cycle to a reasonable extent. However, both domains exhibit a persistent eastward shi...