Effects of rainfall variation on rice production in the Ganges-Brahmaputra Basin
Effects of rainfall variation on rice production in the Ganges-Brahmaputra Basin
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DOI：
10.3354/cr00785
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发表时间：
2009-05-01
期刊：
影响因子：
1.1
通讯作者：
Matsumoto, Jun
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Asada, Haruhisa;Matsumoto, Jun
印度的稻米产量与季风降雨量密切相关。降雨量变化和水稻产量之间的关系在亚洲国家范围内引起了极大的兴趣，但一个国家内的区域差异仍不清楚。在这项研究中，我们研究了降雨量变化对“kharif”水稻（雨季水稻）的影响-包括这种关系的时间变化-在恒河雅鲁藏布江流域，使用统计模型和地区一级的水稻产量和降雨量的数据系列。在研究区域内确定了三个同质区域。在恒河上游，干旱对水稻产量的影响占主导地位，但由于降雨量变化减少，影响变得不那么明显。在恒河下游，由于降雨量增加，洪水影响增加。在雅鲁藏布江流域，由于降雨量变化增加，干旱影响增加。水稻-水稻生产关系的非平稳性主要是由降雨模式的变化引起的，但其他因素（包括社会因素）的影响应在区域尺度上进行评估。
Rice production in India is highly correlated with monsoon rainfall. The relationships between rainfall variation and rice production have attracted significant interest at a country scale in Asia, but regional differences within a country remain unclear. In this study, we examined the effects of rainfall variation on 'kharif' rice (rainy season rice)-including temporal changes in this relationship-in the Ganges-Brahmaputra Basin, using a statistical model and a district-level data series of rice production and rainfall. Three homogeneous regions were identified within the study area. In the upper Ganges, the drought effect on rice production was dominant; however it became less pronounced due to decreased rainfall variation. In the lower Ganges, the flood effect increased due to increased rainfall. In the Brahmaputra Basin, the drought effect increased due to increased rainfall variation. Non-stationarity in the rainfall-rice production relationship was caused mainly by changes in rainfall patterns; however the impact of other factors, including social factors, should be evaluated on a regional scale.