Interannual variability of winter precipitation in Southeast China
Interannual variability of winter precipitation in Southeast China
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DOI：
10.1007/s00704-014-1111-5
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发表时间：
2014
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Ling Zhang;K. Fraedrich;Xiuhua Zhu;F. Sielmann;Xiefei Zhi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ling Zhang;K. Fraedrich;Xiuhua Zhu;F. Sielmann;Xiefei Zhi
中国东南地区观测到的冬季（DJF）降水（1961-2010）具有3个月标准化降水指数（SPI-3）的单极格局，其年际变化与东亚冬季风（EAWM）系统的异常有关。动态合成和线性回归分析表明，东亚冬季风和西伯利亚高压(SH)的强度、东亚槽(EAT)的位置、厄尔尼诺事件以及南海海温(SST)异常在年际尺度上影响着中国东南部不同地区冬季降水的异常。环流指数（EAWM指数、SH指数、EAT指数）主要影响东南部东部地区冬季降水。厄尔尼诺事件因菲律宾反气旋异常而影响华南冬季降水。南海海温异常对冬季降水的影响主要集中在长江以南地区。因此，由少数指数代表的一组环流状况为未来气候预测中的降水异常或极端事件建模提供了基础。
The observed winter (DJF) precipitation in Southeast China (1961–2010) is characterized by a monopole pattern of the 3-monthly Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-3) whose interannual variability is related to the anomalies of East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) systems. Dynamic composites and linear regression analysis indicate that the intensity of EAWM and Siberia High (SH), the position of East Asian Trough (EAT), and El Niño events and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over South China Sea (SCS) influence different regions of anomalous Southeast China winter precipitation on interannual scales. The circulation indices (EAWM index, SH index, and EAT index) mainly affect the winter precipitation in the eastern part of Southeast China. El Niño events affect the South China winter precipitation due to the anticyclone anomalies over Philippines. The effect of SCS SST anomalies on the winter precipitation is mainly in the southern part of Yangtze River. Thus, a set of circulation regimes, represented by a handful indices, provide the basis for modeling precipitation anomalies or extremes in future climate projections.