Can Food Inflation Be Stabilized By Monetary Policy? A Quantile Regression Approach
Can Food Inflation Be Stabilized By Monetary Policy? A Quantile Regression Approach
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DOI：
10.52223/jei4032207
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发表时间：
2022-12
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Choudary Ihtasham Ali;Sami Ullah;U. I. Ahmed;I. Baig;Muhammad Arqam Iqbal;A. Masood
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文献类型：
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作者：
Choudary Ihtasham Ali;Sami Ullah;U. I. Ahmed;I. Baig;Muhammad Arqam Iqbal;A. Masood
从理论上讲，一个连贯和明确的货币政策可以稳定食品通胀。然而，实证研究结果表明，货币政策措施对粮食通货膨胀既有积极影响，也有消极影响。在文献中，几种分析技术被用来把握货币政策工具对发达国家和发展中国家食品通胀的影响。通常，VAR和ARDL方法被用来完成这一任务。然而，这些技术并没有捕捉到食品通胀的尾部动态。在像巴基斯坦这样的国家，食品支出是消费篮子的主要组成部分，一半的人口要么贫困，要么处于贫困边缘，解决食品通胀一直是政策制定者的主要任务。为了捕捉货币政策对食品通胀各个分位数的影响，我们在本研究中采用了分位数回归方法。我们使用的时间序列数据基于2005年9月至2020年10月对食品通胀、货币政策和其他几个变量的月度观察。我们发现，货币政策和运输价格在所有分位数中仍然非常重要，对食品通胀产生了积极影响。因此，限制性货币政策导致该国更高的洪水通货膨胀。在巴基斯坦，政府通常提供补贴以降低食品通胀的影响。这表明，当实施以补贴为重点的财政政策时，通常不需要限制性货币政策。
Theoretically, a consistent and well-defined monetary policy can stabilize food inflation. However, empirical findings have reported both positive and negative effects of monetary policy measures on food inflation. In the literature, several analytical techniques are used to grasp the impact of monetary policy tools on food inflation in developed and developing nations. Usually, VAR and ARDL approaches are employed to fulfill this task. However, these techniques do not capture the tail dynamics of food inflation. In countries like Pakistan, where food expenditures are a major chunk of the consumption basket and half of the population is either poor or on the verge of poverty, tackling food inflation has always been a major task for policymakers. To capture the effect of monetary policy on various quantiles of food inflation, we have employed the quantile regression approach in this study. We have used the time series data based on monthly observations from September 2005 to October 2020 of food inflation, monetary policy, and several other variables. We have found that monetary policy and transportation prices remain highly significant across all quantiles, exhibiting a positive impact on food inflation. Thus restrictive monetary policy leads to higher flood inflation in the country. In the case of Pakistan, governments usually provide subsidies to lower the impact of food inflation. It is suggested that a restrictive monetary policy is usually not required when a subsidies-focused fiscal policy is implemented.