Interannual Variability of Rainfall over Indonesia: Impacts of ENSO and IOD and Their Predictability
Interannual Variability of Rainfall over Indonesia: Impacts of ENSO and IOD and Their Predictability
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印度尼西亚降雨量的年际变化：ENSO 和 IOD 的影响及其可预测性
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Jing
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Rahmat Hidayat;K. Ando;Yukio Masumoto;Jing
使用被称为 SINTEX-F 的回顾性预报，研究了爪哇西北部和望加锡的降雨变化与被称为印度洋偶极子 (IOD) 和厄尔尼诺南方涛动 (ENSO) 的热带海气耦合现象的关系。该模型真实地预测了 9 月至 11 月 (SON) 的降雨量及其变化，并且总体上成功预测了爪哇西北部降雨量的年际变化最多可提前 3 个月，望加锡降雨量可提前 6 个月。这表明印度尼西亚降雨可预测性具有潜在的社会效益。基于观测和模型预测的简单相关分析揭示了 IOD 和 ENSO 对爪哇西北部和望加锡的显着影响。然而，如果排除 IOD 的影响，ENSO 与爪哇西北部降雨量之间的相关性就变得不显着。同样，如果排除 ENSO 的影响，IOD 和望加锡降雨量之间的相关性也变得不显着。这些结果证实，爪哇西北部（望加锡）降雨量的年际变化的大部分与 IOD（ENSO）事件有关。
Northwestern Java and Makassar rainfall variations are examined in relation to the tropical air-sea coupled phenomena referred to as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Nino- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using retrospective forecasts known as SINTEX-F. The model predicts the rainfall and its variability realistically in September-November (SON) and in general successfully predicts the interannual variation of northwestern Java rainfall up to 3 months ahead and Makassar rainfall up to 6 months ahead. This indicates potential societal benefits of rainfall predictability in Indonesia. Simple correlation analysis based on observations and model predictions reveals significant influence of IOD and ENSO on the northwestern Java and Makassar. However, the correlation between ENSO and the northwestern Java rainfall becomes insignificant if the IOD influence is excluded. Similarly, the correlation between IOD and Makassar rainfall becomes insignificant if excluding the ENSO influence. These results confirm that a major portion of interannual variation of the northwestern Java (Makassar) rainfall is related to IOD (ENSO) event.